$1.25 million at $70,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money runs out at age 89. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $101,977; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $1,250,000 | $70,000 | $1,239,000 |
| 2 | 66 | $1,239,000 | $71,400 | $1,225,980 |
| 3 | 67 | $1,225,980 | $72,828 | $1,210,810 |
| 4 | 68 | $1,210,810 | $74,285 | $1,193,351 |
| 5 | 69 | $1,193,351 | $75,770 | $1,173,460 |
| 6 | 70 | $1,173,460 | $77,286 | $1,150,983 |
| 7 | 71 | $1,150,983 | $78,831 | $1,125,759 |
| 8 | 72 | $1,125,759 | $80,408 | $1,097,619 |
| 9 | 73 | $1,097,619 | $82,016 | $1,066,383 |
| 10 | 74 | $1,066,383 | $83,656 | $1,031,863 |
| 11 | 75 | $1,031,863 | $85,330 | $993,860 |
| 12 | 76 | $993,860 | $87,036 | $952,165 |
| 13 | 77 | $952,165 | $88,777 | $906,557 |
| 14 | 78 | $906,557 | $90,552 | $856,805 |
| 15 | 79 | $856,805 | $92,364 | $802,664 |
| 16 | 80 | $802,664 | $94,211 | $743,875 |
| 17 | 81 | $743,875 | $96,095 | $680,169 |
| 18 | 82 | $680,169 | $98,017 | $611,260 |
| 19 | 83 | $611,260 | $99,977 | $536,847 |
| 20 | 84 | $536,847 | $101,977 | $456,614 |
| 21 | 85 | $456,614 | $104,016 | $370,227 |
| 22 | 86 | $370,227 | $106,097 | $277,337 |
| 23 | 87 | $277,337 | $108,219 | $177,575 |
| 24 | 88 | $177,575 | $110,383 | $70,551 |
| 25 | 89 | $70,551 | $70,551 | $0 |
The odds $1.25 million lasts at $70,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $70,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 74% | 55% |
| 25 years | 50% | 35% |
| 30 years | 35% | 22% |
| 35 years | 25% | 16% |
| 40 years | 18% | 13% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 25 years | 20 years | 18 years |
| 4% | 30 years | 22 years | 20 years |
| 5% | 39 years | 25 years | 22 years |
| 6% | 60+ years | 30 years | 25 years |
| 7% | 60+ years | 38 years | 29 years |
With Social Security covering part of it
If Social Security pays part of the $70,000 from some point, the portfolio only pays the rest. Retiring at 65 and claiming at 67 means two years before benefits start; retiring at 62, five.
| Benefit a month | Retire at 62 | Retire at 65 | Retire at 67 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,500 | 36 years | 38 years | 41 years |
| $2,000 | 43 years | 48 years | 52 years |
| $2,500 | 55 years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
Tax on a $70,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $9,490 | 14% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $6,488 | 9% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $70,000 a year ($5,833 a month) from $1,250,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 25, around age 89. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $61,482 a year.
Other withdrawals from $1.25 million
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $40,000 | $3,333 | 60+ years |
| $50,000 | $4,167 | 44 years |
| $60,000 | $5,000 | 32 years |
| $70,000 | $5,833 | 25 years |
| $80,000 | $6,667 | 21 years |
| $100,000 | $8,333 | 16 years |
| $120,000 | $10,000 | 13 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $1.25 million lasts. The same $70,000 a year from $700,000, $750,000, $800,000, $900,000, $1 million, $1.5 million, $1.75 million or $2 million.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.