$1.25 million at $80,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money runs out at age 85. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $116,545; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $1,250,000 | $80,000 | $1,228,500 |
| 2 | 66 | $1,228,500 | $81,600 | $1,204,245 |
| 3 | 67 | $1,204,245 | $83,232 | $1,177,064 |
| 4 | 68 | $1,177,064 | $84,897 | $1,146,775 |
| 5 | 69 | $1,146,775 | $86,595 | $1,113,190 |
| 6 | 70 | $1,113,190 | $88,326 | $1,076,107 |
| 7 | 71 | $1,076,107 | $90,093 | $1,035,314 |
| 8 | 72 | $1,035,314 | $91,895 | $990,590 |
| 9 | 73 | $990,590 | $93,733 | $941,700 |
| 10 | 74 | $941,700 | $95,607 | $888,398 |
| 11 | 75 | $888,398 | $97,520 | $830,422 |
| 12 | 76 | $830,422 | $99,470 | $767,500 |
| 13 | 77 | $767,500 | $101,459 | $699,342 |
| 14 | 78 | $699,342 | $103,489 | $625,647 |
| 15 | 79 | $625,647 | $105,558 | $546,093 |
| 16 | 80 | $546,093 | $107,669 | $460,344 |
| 17 | 81 | $460,344 | $109,823 | $368,048 |
| 18 | 82 | $368,048 | $112,019 | $268,830 |
| 19 | 83 | $268,830 | $114,260 | $162,298 |
| 20 | 84 | $162,298 | $116,545 | $48,041 |
| 21 | 85 | $48,041 | $48,041 | $0 |
The odds $1.25 million lasts at $80,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $80,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 54% | 39% |
| 25 years | 31% | 22% |
| 30 years | 20% | 14% |
| 35 years | 14% | 10% |
| 40 years | 11% | 7% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 21 years | 17 years | 16 years |
| 4% | 24 years | 19 years | 17 years |
| 5% | 28 years | 21 years | 19 years |
| 6% | 38 years | 24 years | 21 years |
| 7% | 60+ years | 28 years | 24 years |
With Social Security covering part of it
If Social Security pays part of the $80,000 from some point, the portfolio only pays the rest. Retiring at 65 and claiming at 67 means two years before benefits start; retiring at 62, five.
| Benefit a month | Retire at 62 | Retire at 65 | Retire at 67 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,500 | 27 years | 29 years | 30 years |
| $2,000 | 30 years | 33 years | 36 years |
| $2,500 | 35 years | 40 years | 44 years |
Tax on an $80,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $11,822 | 15% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $7,688 | 10% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $80,000 a year ($6,667 a month) from $1,250,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 21, around age 85. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $61,482 a year.
Other withdrawals from $1.25 million
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $40,000 | $3,333 | 60+ years |
| $50,000 | $4,167 | 44 years |
| $60,000 | $5,000 | 32 years |
| $70,000 | $5,833 | 25 years |
| $80,000 | $6,667 | 21 years |
| $100,000 | $8,333 | 16 years |
| $120,000 | $10,000 | 13 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $1.25 million lasts. The same $80,000 a year from $800,000, $900,000, $1 million, $1.5 million, $1.75 million, $2 million or $2.5 million.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.