$450,000 at $20,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money runs out at age 100. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $29,136; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $450,000 | $20,000 | $451,500 |
| 2 | 66 | $451,500 | $20,400 | $452,655 |
| 3 | 67 | $452,655 | $20,808 | $453,439 |
| 4 | 68 | $453,439 | $21,224 | $453,826 |
| 5 | 69 | $453,826 | $21,649 | $453,786 |
| 6 | 70 | $453,786 | $22,082 | $453,290 |
| 7 | 71 | $453,290 | $22,523 | $452,305 |
| 8 | 72 | $452,305 | $22,974 | $450,798 |
| 9 | 73 | $450,798 | $23,433 | $448,733 |
| 10 | 74 | $448,733 | $23,902 | $446,072 |
| 11 | 75 | $446,072 | $24,380 | $442,777 |
| 12 | 76 | $442,777 | $24,867 | $438,805 |
| 13 | 77 | $438,805 | $25,365 | $434,112 |
| 14 | 78 | $434,112 | $25,872 | $428,652 |
| 15 | 79 | $428,652 | $26,390 | $422,376 |
| 16 | 80 | $422,376 | $26,917 | $415,231 |
| 17 | 81 | $415,231 | $27,456 | $407,164 |
| 18 | 82 | $407,164 | $28,005 | $398,118 |
| 19 | 83 | $398,118 | $28,565 | $388,030 |
| 20 | 84 | $388,030 | $29,136 | $376,839 |
| 21 | 85 | $376,839 | $29,719 | $364,476 |
| 22 | 86 | $364,476 | $30,313 | $350,871 |
| 23 | 87 | $350,871 | $30,920 | $335,949 |
| 24 | 88 | $335,949 | $31,538 | $319,631 |
| 25 | 89 | $319,631 | $32,169 | $301,835 |
| 26 | 90 | $301,835 | $32,812 | $282,475 |
| 27 | 91 | $282,475 | $33,468 | $261,456 |
| 28 | 92 | $261,456 | $34,138 | $238,685 |
| 29 | 93 | $238,685 | $34,820 | $214,057 |
| 30 | 94 | $214,057 | $35,517 | $187,468 |
| 31 | 95 | $187,468 | $36,227 | $158,802 |
| 32 | 96 | $158,802 | $36,952 | $127,943 |
| 33 | 97 | $127,943 | $37,691 | $94,765 |
| 34 | 98 | $94,765 | $38,445 | $59,136 |
| 35 | 99 | $59,136 | $39,214 | $20,919 |
| 36 | 100 | $20,919 | $20,919 | $0 |
The odds $450,000 lasts at $20,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $20,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 91% | 79% |
| 25 years | 80% | 59% |
| 30 years | 65% | 43% |
| 35 years | 52% | 35% |
| 40 years | 44% | 27% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 37 years | 26 years | 23 years |
| 4% | 52 years | 30 years | 26 years |
| 5% | 60+ years | 36 years | 30 years |
| 6% | 60+ years | 50 years | 36 years |
| 7% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 49 years |
$20,000 a year from other balances
| Balance | Lasts |
|---|---|
| $200,000 | 12 years |
| $250,000 | 16 years |
| $300,000 | 20 years |
| $350,000 | 24 years |
| $400,000 | 30 years |
| $450,000 | 36 years |
| $500,000 | 44 years |
| $600,000 | 60+ years |
Tax on a $20,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $0 | 0% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $0 | 0% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $20,000 a year ($1,667 a month) from $450,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 36, around age 100. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $22,133 a year.
Other withdrawals from $450,000
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $15,000 | $1,250 | 60+ years |
| $20,000 | $1,667 | 36 years |
| $25,000 | $2,083 | 25 years |
| $30,000 | $2,500 | 20 years |
| $40,000 | $3,333 | 14 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $450,000 lasts.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.