$1.75 million at $100,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money runs out at age 88. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $145,681; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $1,750,000 | $100,000 | $1,732,500 |
| 2 | 66 | $1,732,500 | $102,000 | $1,712,025 |
| 3 | 67 | $1,712,025 | $104,040 | $1,688,384 |
| 4 | 68 | $1,688,384 | $106,121 | $1,661,377 |
| 5 | 69 | $1,661,377 | $108,243 | $1,630,790 |
| 6 | 70 | $1,630,790 | $110,408 | $1,596,401 |
| 7 | 71 | $1,596,401 | $112,616 | $1,557,974 |
| 8 | 72 | $1,557,974 | $114,869 | $1,515,261 |
| 9 | 73 | $1,515,261 | $117,166 | $1,468,000 |
| 10 | 74 | $1,468,000 | $119,509 | $1,415,915 |
| 11 | 75 | $1,415,915 | $121,899 | $1,358,716 |
| 12 | 76 | $1,358,716 | $124,337 | $1,296,098 |
| 13 | 77 | $1,296,098 | $126,824 | $1,227,737 |
| 14 | 78 | $1,227,737 | $129,361 | $1,153,295 |
| 15 | 79 | $1,153,295 | $131,948 | $1,072,415 |
| 16 | 80 | $1,072,415 | $134,587 | $984,719 |
| 17 | 81 | $984,719 | $137,279 | $889,813 |
| 18 | 82 | $889,813 | $140,024 | $787,278 |
| 19 | 83 | $787,278 | $142,825 | $676,676 |
| 20 | 84 | $676,676 | $145,681 | $557,545 |
| 21 | 85 | $557,545 | $148,595 | $429,398 |
| 22 | 86 | $429,398 | $151,567 | $291,723 |
| 23 | 87 | $291,723 | $154,598 | $143,981 |
| 24 | 88 | $143,981 | $143,981 | $0 |
The odds $1.75 million lasts at $100,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $100,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 71% | 52% |
| 25 years | 47% | 33% |
| 30 years | 32% | 21% |
| 35 years | 23% | 15% |
| 40 years | 17% | 12% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 25 years | 20 years | 18 years |
| 4% | 29 years | 22 years | 20 years |
| 5% | 37 years | 24 years | 22 years |
| 6% | 60+ years | 29 years | 24 years |
| 7% | 60+ years | 36 years | 28 years |
With Social Security covering part of it
If Social Security pays part of the $100,000 from some point, the portfolio only pays the rest. Retiring at 65 and claiming at 67 means two years before benefits start; retiring at 62, five.
| Benefit a month | Retire at 62 | Retire at 65 | Retire at 67 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,500 | 30 years | 32 years | 33 years |
| $2,000 | 33 years | 36 years | 38 years |
| $2,500 | 37 years | 41 years | 44 years |
Tax on a $100,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $16,486 | 16% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $10,088 | 10% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $100,000 a year ($8,333 a month) from $1,750,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 24, around age 88. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $86,075 a year.
Other withdrawals from $1.75 million
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $60,000 | $5,000 | 60+ years |
| $70,000 | $5,833 | 44 years |
| $80,000 | $6,667 | 34 years |
| $100,000 | $8,333 | 24 years |
| $120,000 | $10,000 | 19 years |
| $150,000 | $12,500 | 14 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $1.75 million lasts. The same $100,000 a year from $1 million, $1.25 million, $1.5 million, $2 million, $2.5 million or $3 million.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.