$20,000 for 15 years at returns from 4% to 10%
| Return | Balance | Multiple | In today’s dollars |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4% | $36,019 | 1.8× | $23,119 |
| 5% | $41,579 | 2.1× | $26,688 |
| 6% | $47,931 | 2.4× | $30,765 |
| 7% | $55,181 | 2.8× | $35,418 |
| 8% | $63,443 | 3.2× | $40,722 |
| 10% | $83,545 | 4.2× | $53,624 |
Year by year at 7%
| Year | Put in so far | Balance | In today’s dollars |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $20,000 | $21,400 | $20,777 |
| 2 | $20,000 | $22,898 | $21,584 |
| 3 | $20,000 | $24,501 | $22,422 |
| 4 | $20,000 | $26,216 | $23,293 |
| 5 | $20,000 | $28,051 | $24,197 |
| 6 | $20,000 | $30,015 | $25,137 |
| 7 | $20,000 | $32,116 | $26,113 |
| 8 | $20,000 | $34,364 | $27,127 |
| 9 | $20,000 | $36,769 | $28,181 |
| 10 | $20,000 | $39,343 | $29,275 |
| 11 | $20,000 | $42,097 | $30,412 |
| 12 | $20,000 | $45,044 | $31,593 |
| 13 | $20,000 | $48,197 | $32,820 |
| 14 | $20,000 | $51,571 | $34,094 |
| 15 | $20,000 | $55,181 | $35,418 |
The range in 1,000 simulated markets
A 7% average does not arrive as 7% every year. In 1,000 simulated sequences of returns averaging 7% with 12% volatility, this is where $20,000 ended up: 1 in 10 markets finished below the first figure, half below the middle one, and 1 in 10 above the last.
| After | Weak (1 in 10 lower) | Middle | Strong (1 in 10 higher) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 years | $21,609 | $32,679 | $49,012 |
| 15 years | $27,714 | $50,751 | $86,485 |
The middle of the simulation sits below the steady 7% figure of $55,181 because ups and downs cost compounding: a 20% loss needs a 25% gain to get back.
What $55,181 would pay in retirement
At a 4% first-year withdrawal, $55,181 pays about $2,207 a year, $184 a month, before tax; in today’s dollars that is about $1,417 a year. How long a balance near it lasts at each withdrawal: how long $100,000 lasts. To stop saving early and let growth do the rest, see Coast FIRE numbers by age.
$20,000 for other terms
| Years | Balance | In today’s dollars |
|---|---|---|
| $20,000 for 5 years | $28,051 | $24,197 |
| $20,000 for 10 years | $39,343 | $29,275 |
| 15 years | $55,181 | $35,418 |
| $20,000 for 20 years | $77,394 | $42,851 |
| $20,000 for 25 years | $108,549 | $51,843 |
| $20,000 for 30 years | $152,245 | $62,723 |
| $20,000 for 40 years | $299,489 | $91,810 |
| $20,000 for 50 years | $589,141 | $134,387 |
Other amounts for 15 years
$1,000: $2,759, $5,000: $13,795, $10,000: $27,590, $25,000: $68,976, $50,000: $137,952, $100,000: $275,903, $200,000: $551,806, $250,000: $689,758, $500,000: $1,379,516, $1,000,000: $2,759,032, $2,000,000: $5,518,063.
How it is worked out
Monthly amounts are deposited at the end of each month and compounded monthly at the rate that equals the annual return; lump sums compound once a year. The headline return is 7% a year, the Trinity-style average the site’s retirement pages use; stock-heavy portfolios have averaged more over long periods and bond-heavy ones less, which is why every page shows 4% to 10%. Today’s dollars divide by 3% inflation a year. The range comes from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns averaging 7% with 12% volatility, with each year’s deposits added through the year. Fees and taxes are not taken out. More on the methodology page.