$10,000 for 15 years at returns from 4% to 10%
| Return | Balance | Multiple | In today’s dollars |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4% | $18,009 | 1.8× | $11,560 |
| 5% | $20,789 | 2.1× | $13,344 |
| 6% | $23,966 | 2.4× | $15,383 |
| 7% | $27,590 | 2.8× | $17,709 |
| 8% | $31,722 | 3.2× | $20,361 |
| 10% | $41,772 | 4.2× | $26,812 |
Year by year at 7%
| Year | Put in so far | Balance | In today’s dollars |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $10,000 | $10,700 | $10,388 |
| 2 | $10,000 | $11,449 | $10,792 |
| 3 | $10,000 | $12,250 | $11,211 |
| 4 | $10,000 | $13,108 | $11,646 |
| 5 | $10,000 | $14,026 | $12,099 |
| 6 | $10,000 | $15,007 | $12,568 |
| 7 | $10,000 | $16,058 | $13,056 |
| 8 | $10,000 | $17,182 | $13,564 |
| 9 | $10,000 | $18,385 | $14,090 |
| 10 | $10,000 | $19,672 | $14,637 |
| 11 | $10,000 | $21,049 | $15,206 |
| 12 | $10,000 | $22,522 | $15,796 |
| 13 | $10,000 | $24,098 | $16,410 |
| 14 | $10,000 | $25,785 | $17,047 |
| 15 | $10,000 | $27,590 | $17,709 |
The range in 1,000 simulated markets
A 7% average does not arrive as 7% every year. In 1,000 simulated sequences of returns averaging 7% with 12% volatility, this is where $10,000 ended up: 1 in 10 markets finished below the first figure, half below the middle one, and 1 in 10 above the last.
| After | Weak (1 in 10 lower) | Middle | Strong (1 in 10 higher) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 years | $10,804 | $16,339 | $24,506 |
| 15 years | $13,857 | $25,376 | $43,243 |
The middle of the simulation sits below the steady 7% figure of $27,590 because ups and downs cost compounding: a 20% loss needs a 25% gain to get back.
What $27,590 would pay in retirement
At a 4% first-year withdrawal, $27,590 pays about $1,104 a year, $92 a month, before tax; in today’s dollars that is about $708 a year. How long a balance near it lasts at each withdrawal: how long $100,000 lasts. To stop saving early and let growth do the rest, see Coast FIRE numbers by age.
$10,000 for other terms
| Years | Balance | In today’s dollars |
|---|---|---|
| $10,000 for 5 years | $14,026 | $12,099 |
| $10,000 for 10 years | $19,672 | $14,637 |
| 15 years | $27,590 | $17,709 |
| $10,000 for 20 years | $38,697 | $21,426 |
| $10,000 for 25 years | $54,274 | $25,922 |
| $10,000 for 30 years | $76,123 | $31,361 |
| $10,000 for 40 years | $149,745 | $45,905 |
| $10,000 for 50 years | $294,570 | $67,194 |
Other amounts for 15 years
$1,000: $2,759, $5,000: $13,795, $20,000: $55,181, $25,000: $68,976, $50,000: $137,952, $100,000: $275,903, $200,000: $551,806, $250,000: $689,758, $500,000: $1,379,516, $1,000,000: $2,759,032, $2,000,000: $5,518,063.
How it is worked out
Monthly amounts are deposited at the end of each month and compounded monthly at the rate that equals the annual return; lump sums compound once a year. The headline return is 7% a year, the Trinity-style average the site’s retirement pages use; stock-heavy portfolios have averaged more over long periods and bond-heavy ones less, which is why every page shows 4% to 10%. Today’s dollars divide by 3% inflation a year. The range comes from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns averaging 7% with 12% volatility, with each year’s deposits added through the year. Fees and taxes are not taken out. More on the methodology page.