$20,000 for 5 years at returns from 4% to 10%
| Return | Balance | Multiple | In today’s dollars |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4% | $24,333 | 1.2× | $20,990 |
| 5% | $25,526 | 1.3× | $22,019 |
| 6% | $26,765 | 1.3× | $23,087 |
| 7% | $28,051 | 1.4× | $24,197 |
| 8% | $29,387 | 1.5× | $25,349 |
| 10% | $32,210 | 1.6× | $27,785 |
Year by year at 7%
| Year | Put in so far | Balance | In today’s dollars |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $20,000 | $21,400 | $20,777 |
| 2 | $20,000 | $22,898 | $21,584 |
| 3 | $20,000 | $24,501 | $22,422 |
| 4 | $20,000 | $26,216 | $23,293 |
| 5 | $20,000 | $28,051 | $24,197 |
The range in 1,000 simulated markets
A 7% average does not arrive as 7% every year. In 1,000 simulated sequences of returns averaging 7% with 12% volatility, this is where $20,000 ended up: 1 in 10 markets finished below the first figure, half below the middle one, and 1 in 10 above the last.
| After | Weak (1 in 10 lower) | Middle | Strong (1 in 10 higher) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 years | $18,762 | $24,242 | $31,004 |
| 5 years | $19,596 | $27,177 | $37,629 |
The middle of the simulation sits below the steady 7% figure of $28,051 because ups and downs cost compounding: a 20% loss needs a 25% gain to get back.
What $28,051 would pay in retirement
At a 4% first-year withdrawal, $28,051 pays about $1,122 a year, $94 a month, before tax; in today’s dollars that is about $968 a year. How long a balance near it lasts at each withdrawal: how long $100,000 lasts. To stop saving early and let growth do the rest, see Coast FIRE numbers by age.
$20,000 for other terms
| Years | Balance | In today’s dollars |
|---|---|---|
| 5 years | $28,051 | $24,197 |
| $20,000 for 10 years | $39,343 | $29,275 |
| $20,000 for 15 years | $55,181 | $35,418 |
| $20,000 for 20 years | $77,394 | $42,851 |
| $20,000 for 25 years | $108,549 | $51,843 |
| $20,000 for 30 years | $152,245 | $62,723 |
| $20,000 for 40 years | $299,489 | $91,810 |
| $20,000 for 50 years | $589,141 | $134,387 |
Other amounts for 5 years
$1,000: $1,403, $5,000: $7,013, $10,000: $14,026, $25,000: $35,064, $50,000: $70,128, $100,000: $140,255, $200,000: $280,510, $250,000: $350,638, $500,000: $701,276, $1,000,000: $1,402,552, $2,000,000: $2,805,103.
How it is worked out
Monthly amounts are deposited at the end of each month and compounded monthly at the rate that equals the annual return; lump sums compound once a year. The headline return is 7% a year, the Trinity-style average the site’s retirement pages use; stock-heavy portfolios have averaged more over long periods and bond-heavy ones less, which is why every page shows 4% to 10%. Today’s dollars divide by 3% inflation a year. The range comes from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns averaging 7% with 12% volatility, with each year’s deposits added through the year. Fees and taxes are not taken out. More on the methodology page.