$1 million for 15 years at returns from 4% to 10%
| Return | Balance | Multiple | In today’s dollars |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4% | $1,800,944 | 1.8× | $1,155,957 |
| 5% | $2,078,928 | 2.1× | $1,334,385 |
| 6% | $2,396,558 | 2.4× | $1,538,260 |
| 7% | $2,759,032 | 2.8× | $1,770,917 |
| 8% | $3,172,169 | 3.2× | $2,036,095 |
| 10% | $4,177,248 | 4.2× | $2,681,217 |
Year by year at 7%
| Year | Put in so far | Balance | In today’s dollars |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $1,000,000 | $1,070,000 | $1,038,835 |
| 2 | $1,000,000 | $1,144,900 | $1,079,178 |
| 3 | $1,000,000 | $1,225,043 | $1,121,088 |
| 4 | $1,000,000 | $1,310,796 | $1,164,625 |
| 5 | $1,000,000 | $1,402,552 | $1,209,853 |
| 6 | $1,000,000 | $1,500,730 | $1,256,838 |
| 7 | $1,000,000 | $1,605,781 | $1,305,647 |
| 8 | $1,000,000 | $1,718,186 | $1,356,352 |
| 9 | $1,000,000 | $1,838,459 | $1,409,026 |
| 10 | $1,000,000 | $1,967,151 | $1,463,745 |
| 11 | $1,000,000 | $2,104,852 | $1,520,590 |
| 12 | $1,000,000 | $2,252,192 | $1,579,642 |
| 13 | $1,000,000 | $2,409,845 | $1,640,987 |
| 14 | $1,000,000 | $2,578,534 | $1,704,715 |
| 15 | $1,000,000 | $2,759,032 | $1,770,917 |
The range in 1,000 simulated markets
A 7% average does not arrive as 7% every year. In 1,000 simulated sequences of returns averaging 7% with 12% volatility, this is where $1 million ended up: 1 in 10 markets finished below the first figure, half below the middle one, and 1 in 10 above the last.
| After | Weak (1 in 10 lower) | Middle | Strong (1 in 10 higher) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 years | $1,080,435 | $1,633,943 | $2,450,616 |
| 15 years | $1,385,702 | $2,537,563 | $4,324,254 |
The middle of the simulation sits below the steady 7% figure of $2,759,032 because ups and downs cost compounding: a 20% loss needs a 25% gain to get back.
What $2,759,032 would pay in retirement
At a 4% first-year withdrawal, $2,759,032 pays about $110,361 a year, $9,197 a month, before tax; in today’s dollars that is about $70,837 a year. How long a balance near it lasts at each withdrawal: how long $3 million lasts. To stop saving early and let growth do the rest, see Coast FIRE numbers by age.
$1 million for other terms
| Years | Balance | In today’s dollars |
|---|---|---|
| $1 million for 5 years | $1,402,552 | $1,209,853 |
| $1 million for 10 years | $1,967,151 | $1,463,745 |
| 15 years | $2,759,032 | $1,770,917 |
| $1 million for 20 years | $3,869,684 | $2,142,550 |
| $1 million for 25 years | $5,427,433 | $2,592,172 |
| $1 million for 30 years | $7,612,255 | $3,136,148 |
| $1 million for 40 years | $14,974,458 | $4,590,522 |
| $1 million for 50 years | $29,457,025 | $6,719,356 |
Other amounts for 15 years
$1,000: $2,759, $5,000: $13,795, $10,000: $27,590, $20,000: $55,181, $25,000: $68,976, $50,000: $137,952, $100,000: $275,903, $200,000: $551,806, $250,000: $689,758, $500,000: $1,379,516, $2,000,000: $5,518,063.
How it is worked out
Monthly amounts are deposited at the end of each month and compounded monthly at the rate that equals the annual return; lump sums compound once a year. The headline return is 7% a year, the Trinity-style average the site’s retirement pages use; stock-heavy portfolios have averaged more over long periods and bond-heavy ones less, which is why every page shows 4% to 10%. Today’s dollars divide by 3% inflation a year. The range comes from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns averaging 7% with 12% volatility, with each year’s deposits added through the year. Fees and taxes are not taken out. More on the methodology page.