$20,000 for 10 years at returns from 4% to 10%
| Return | Balance | Multiple | In today’s dollars |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4% | $29,605 | 1.5× | $22,029 |
| 5% | $32,578 | 1.6× | $24,241 |
| 6% | $35,817 | 1.8× | $26,651 |
| 7% | $39,343 | 2.0× | $29,275 |
| 8% | $43,178 | 2.2× | $32,129 |
| 10% | $51,875 | 2.6× | $38,600 |
Year by year at 7%
| Year | Put in so far | Balance | In today’s dollars |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $20,000 | $21,400 | $20,777 |
| 2 | $20,000 | $22,898 | $21,584 |
| 3 | $20,000 | $24,501 | $22,422 |
| 4 | $20,000 | $26,216 | $23,293 |
| 5 | $20,000 | $28,051 | $24,197 |
| 6 | $20,000 | $30,015 | $25,137 |
| 7 | $20,000 | $32,116 | $26,113 |
| 8 | $20,000 | $34,364 | $27,127 |
| 9 | $20,000 | $36,769 | $28,181 |
| 10 | $20,000 | $39,343 | $29,275 |
The range in 1,000 simulated markets
A 7% average does not arrive as 7% every year. In 1,000 simulated sequences of returns averaging 7% with 12% volatility, this is where $20,000 ended up: 1 in 10 markets finished below the first figure, half below the middle one, and 1 in 10 above the last.
| After | Weak (1 in 10 lower) | Middle | Strong (1 in 10 higher) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 years | $19,596 | $27,177 | $37,629 |
| 10 years | $23,277 | $36,977 | $56,970 |
The middle of the simulation sits below the steady 7% figure of $39,343 because ups and downs cost compounding: a 20% loss needs a 25% gain to get back.
What $39,343 would pay in retirement
At a 4% first-year withdrawal, $39,343 pays about $1,574 a year, $131 a month, before tax; in today’s dollars that is about $1,171 a year. How long a balance near it lasts at each withdrawal: how long $100,000 lasts. To stop saving early and let growth do the rest, see Coast FIRE numbers by age.
$20,000 for other terms
| Years | Balance | In today’s dollars |
|---|---|---|
| $20,000 for 5 years | $28,051 | $24,197 |
| 10 years | $39,343 | $29,275 |
| $20,000 for 15 years | $55,181 | $35,418 |
| $20,000 for 20 years | $77,394 | $42,851 |
| $20,000 for 25 years | $108,549 | $51,843 |
| $20,000 for 30 years | $152,245 | $62,723 |
| $20,000 for 40 years | $299,489 | $91,810 |
| $20,000 for 50 years | $589,141 | $134,387 |
Other amounts for 10 years
$1,000: $1,967, $5,000: $9,836, $10,000: $19,672, $25,000: $49,179, $50,000: $98,358, $100,000: $196,715, $200,000: $393,430, $250,000: $491,788, $500,000: $983,576, $1,000,000: $1,967,151, $2,000,000: $3,934,303.
How it is worked out
Monthly amounts are deposited at the end of each month and compounded monthly at the rate that equals the annual return; lump sums compound once a year. The headline return is 7% a year, the Trinity-style average the site’s retirement pages use; stock-heavy portfolios have averaged more over long periods and bond-heavy ones less, which is why every page shows 4% to 10%. Today’s dollars divide by 3% inflation a year. The range comes from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns averaging 7% with 12% volatility, with each year’s deposits added through the year. Fees and taxes are not taken out. More on the methodology page.