$5,000 for 15 years at returns from 4% to 10%
| Return | Balance | Multiple | In today’s dollars |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4% | $9,005 | 1.8× | $5,780 |
| 5% | $10,395 | 2.1× | $6,672 |
| 6% | $11,983 | 2.4× | $7,691 |
| 7% | $13,795 | 2.8× | $8,855 |
| 8% | $15,861 | 3.2× | $10,180 |
| 10% | $20,886 | 4.2× | $13,406 |
Year by year at 7%
| Year | Put in so far | Balance | In today’s dollars |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $5,000 | $5,350 | $5,194 |
| 2 | $5,000 | $5,725 | $5,396 |
| 3 | $5,000 | $6,125 | $5,605 |
| 4 | $5,000 | $6,554 | $5,823 |
| 5 | $5,000 | $7,013 | $6,049 |
| 6 | $5,000 | $7,504 | $6,284 |
| 7 | $5,000 | $8,029 | $6,528 |
| 8 | $5,000 | $8,591 | $6,782 |
| 9 | $5,000 | $9,192 | $7,045 |
| 10 | $5,000 | $9,836 | $7,319 |
| 11 | $5,000 | $10,524 | $7,603 |
| 12 | $5,000 | $11,261 | $7,898 |
| 13 | $5,000 | $12,049 | $8,205 |
| 14 | $5,000 | $12,893 | $8,524 |
| 15 | $5,000 | $13,795 | $8,855 |
The range in 1,000 simulated markets
A 7% average does not arrive as 7% every year. In 1,000 simulated sequences of returns averaging 7% with 12% volatility, this is where $5,000 ended up: 1 in 10 markets finished below the first figure, half below the middle one, and 1 in 10 above the last.
| After | Weak (1 in 10 lower) | Middle | Strong (1 in 10 higher) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 years | $5,402 | $8,170 | $12,253 |
| 15 years | $6,929 | $12,688 | $21,621 |
The middle of the simulation sits below the steady 7% figure of $13,795 because ups and downs cost compounding: a 20% loss needs a 25% gain to get back.
What $13,795 would pay in retirement
At a 4% first-year withdrawal, $13,795 pays about $552 a year, $46 a month, before tax; in today’s dollars that is about $354 a year. How long a balance near it lasts at each withdrawal: how long $100,000 lasts. To stop saving early and let growth do the rest, see Coast FIRE numbers by age.
$5,000 for other terms
| Years | Balance | In today’s dollars |
|---|---|---|
| $5,000 for 5 years | $7,013 | $6,049 |
| $5,000 for 10 years | $9,836 | $7,319 |
| 15 years | $13,795 | $8,855 |
| $5,000 for 20 years | $19,348 | $10,713 |
| $5,000 for 25 years | $27,137 | $12,961 |
| $5,000 for 30 years | $38,061 | $15,681 |
| $5,000 for 40 years | $74,872 | $22,953 |
| $5,000 for 50 years | $147,285 | $33,597 |
Other amounts for 15 years
$1,000: $2,759, $10,000: $27,590, $20,000: $55,181, $25,000: $68,976, $50,000: $137,952, $100,000: $275,903, $200,000: $551,806, $250,000: $689,758, $500,000: $1,379,516, $1,000,000: $2,759,032, $2,000,000: $5,518,063.
How it is worked out
Monthly amounts are deposited at the end of each month and compounded monthly at the rate that equals the annual return; lump sums compound once a year. The headline return is 7% a year, the Trinity-style average the site’s retirement pages use; stock-heavy portfolios have averaged more over long periods and bond-heavy ones less, which is why every page shows 4% to 10%. Today’s dollars divide by 3% inflation a year. The range comes from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns averaging 7% with 12% volatility, with each year’s deposits added through the year. Fees and taxes are not taken out. More on the methodology page.