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How long will $700,000 last at $25,000 a year?

56 years at a steady 5% return, with the $25,000 ($2,083 a month) raised 2% a year for inflation. Below: the balance year by year, the odds in 1,000 simulated markets, what other returns do, Social Security, the tax on the withdrawal, and a calculator set to these numbers.

Short answer: About 56 years at a steady 5% return, with the $25,000 raised 2% a year for inflation: retiring at 60 it runs out at age 115, at 65 at age 120. That is 3.6% of $700,000 in the first year. At 7% it lasts more than 60 years; at 3%, 33 years.

Updated · By Berkay Kolay

$700,000 at $25,000 a year, year by year

Starting at 65, the money runs out at age 120. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $36,420; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.

$700,000, $25,000 a year rising 2%, 5% return, from age 65
YearAgeBalance at startWithdrawalBalance at end
165$700,000$25,000$708,750
266$708,750$25,500$717,413
367$717,413$26,010$725,973
468$725,973$26,530$734,415
569$734,415$27,061$742,721
670$742,721$27,602$750,875
771$750,875$28,154$758,857
872$758,857$28,717$766,647
973$766,647$29,291$774,224
1074$774,224$29,877$781,564
1175$781,564$30,475$788,643
1276$788,643$31,084$795,437
1377$795,437$31,706$801,917
1478$801,917$32,340$808,056
1579$808,056$32,987$813,822
1680$813,822$33,647$819,184
1781$819,184$34,320$824,108
1882$824,108$35,006$828,557
1983$828,557$35,706$832,493
2084$832,493$36,420$835,877
2185$835,877$37,149$838,665
2286$838,665$37,892$840,812
2387$840,812$38,649$842,270
2488$842,270$39,422$842,990
2589$842,990$40,211$842,918
2690$842,918$41,015$841,998
2791$841,998$41,835$840,171
2892$840,171$42,672$837,374
2993$837,374$43,526$833,540
3094$833,540$44,396$828,601
3195$828,601$45,284$822,483
3296$822,483$46,190$815,108
3397$815,108$47,114$806,394
3498$806,394$48,056$796,256
3599$796,256$49,017$784,601
36100$784,601$49,997$771,334
37101$771,334$50,997$756,353
38102$756,353$52,017$739,553
39103$739,553$53,057$720,820
40104$720,820$54,119$700,037

The odds $700,000 lasts at $25,000 a year

Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $25,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.

Chance $25,000 a year from $700,000 lasts, 1,000 simulated markets
ForTrinity-style (7%, 12%)Cautious (5%, 15%)
20 years99%90%
25 years92%79%
30 years86%65%
35 years77%53%
40 years69%45%

What other returns and inflation do

Years $25,000 a year from $700,000 lasts, by return and yearly raise
ReturnNo raise2% raise3% raise
3%58 years33 years28 years
4%60+ years40 years33 years
5%60+ years56 years40 years
6%60+ years60+ years55 years
7%60+ years60+ years60+ years

$25,000 a year from other balances

Years $25,000 a year lasts, by balance, 5% return
BalanceLasts
$250,00012 years
$300,00015 years
$350,00018 years
$400,00022 years
$450,00025 years
$500,00030 years
$600,00040 years
$700,00056 years
$750,00060+ years
$800,00060+ years

Tax on a $25,000 withdrawal

From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:

Federal tax a $25,000 withdrawal adds at 65
HouseholdFederal taxShare of the withdrawal
Single, $24,000 of Social Security$7903%
Married, $42,000 of Social Security$00%

Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.

The calculator, set to these numbers

Your money lasts56 yearsRuns out around age 120
Most you can withdraw for 30 years$34,430 a year$2,869 a month, rising with inflation
Taken from the portfolio$25,000 a year3.6% of the portfolio in year one

Taking $25,000 a year ($2,083 a month) from $700,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 56, around age 120. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $34,430 a year.

Success rate63%1000 seeded paths
10th percentile ending$0
Median ending$287,158
90th percentile ending$2,673,185

Other withdrawals from $700,000

Years $700,000 lasts by withdrawal, 5% return, 2% raises
Withdrawal a yearA monthLasts
$25,000$2,08356 years
$30,000$2,50038 years
$40,000$3,33324 years
$50,000$4,16718 years
$60,000$5,00014 years
$70,000$5,83312 years

All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $700,000 lasts.

How it is worked out

The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.

Frequently asked questions

How long will $700,000 last if I withdraw $25,000 a year?
56 years at a steady 5% return when the withdrawal rises 2% a year with inflation, or more than 60 years if it stays at $25,000. The first withdrawal is 3.6% of the balance.
How long will $700,000 last at $2,083 a month?
$2,083 a month is $25,000 a year, so the same 56 years at a 5% return with 2% yearly raises. Taxes come out of the withdrawal: from a traditional 401(k) or IRA, part of each payment goes to income tax.
How much could $700,000 pay for 30 years instead?
About $34,430 in the first year, raised 2% a year, spends it to zero in exactly 30 years at a steady 5% return; $45,458 lasts 20 years and $29,139 lasts 40.
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