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How long will $800,000 last at $25,000 a year?

More than 60 years at a steady 5% return, with the $25,000 ($2,083 a month) raised 2% a year for inflation. Below: the balance year by year, the odds in 1,000 simulated markets, what other returns do, Social Security, the tax on the withdrawal, and a calculator set to these numbers.

Short answer: About more than 60 years at a steady 5% return, with the $25,000 raised 2% a year for inflation: retiring at 60 it runs out at past 120, at 65 at past 125. That is 3.1% of $800,000 in the first year. At 7% it lasts more than 60 years; at 3%, 39 years.

Updated · By Berkay Kolay

$800,000 at $25,000 a year, year by year

Starting at 65, the money is still there at 95. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $36,420; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.

$800,000, $25,000 a year rising 2%, 5% return, from age 65
YearAgeBalance at startWithdrawalBalance at end
165$800,000$25,000$813,750
266$813,750$25,500$827,663
367$827,663$26,010$841,735
468$841,735$26,530$855,965
569$855,965$27,061$870,350
670$870,350$27,602$884,885
771$884,885$28,154$899,567
872$899,567$28,717$914,393
973$914,393$29,291$929,356
1074$929,356$29,877$944,453
1175$944,453$30,475$959,677
1276$959,677$31,084$975,022
1377$975,022$31,706$990,482
1478$990,482$32,340$1,006,049
1579$1,006,049$32,987$1,021,715
1680$1,021,715$33,647$1,037,472
1781$1,037,472$34,320$1,053,310
1882$1,053,310$35,006$1,069,219
1983$1,069,219$35,706$1,085,189
2084$1,085,189$36,420$1,101,207
2185$1,101,207$37,149$1,117,261
2286$1,117,261$37,892$1,133,338
2387$1,133,338$38,649$1,149,423
2488$1,149,423$39,422$1,165,500
2589$1,165,500$40,211$1,181,554
2690$1,181,554$41,015$1,197,565
2791$1,197,565$41,835$1,213,516
2892$1,213,516$42,672$1,229,386
2993$1,229,386$43,526$1,245,154
3094$1,245,154$44,396$1,260,796
3195$1,260,796$45,284$1,276,287
3296$1,276,287$46,190$1,291,602
3397$1,291,602$47,114$1,306,713
3498$1,306,713$48,056$1,321,590
3599$1,321,590$49,017$1,336,202
36100$1,336,202$49,997$1,350,515
37101$1,350,515$50,997$1,364,494
38102$1,364,494$52,017$1,378,101
39103$1,378,101$53,057$1,391,295
40104$1,391,295$54,119$1,404,036

The odds $800,000 lasts at $25,000 a year

Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $25,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.

Chance $25,000 a year from $800,000 lasts, 1,000 simulated markets
ForTrinity-style (7%, 12%)Cautious (5%, 15%)
20 years99%94%
25 years96%86%
30 years91%75%
35 years86%65%
40 years81%57%

What other returns and inflation do

Years $25,000 a year from $800,000 lasts, by return and yearly raise
ReturnNo raise2% raise3% raise
3%60+ years39 years32 years
4%60+ years50 years39 years
5%60+ years60+ years49 years
6%60+ years60+ years60+ years
7%60+ years60+ years60+ years

$25,000 a year from other balances

Years $25,000 a year lasts, by balance, 5% return
BalanceLasts
$250,00012 years
$300,00015 years
$350,00018 years
$400,00022 years
$450,00025 years
$500,00030 years
$600,00040 years
$700,00056 years
$750,00060+ years
$800,00060+ years

Tax on a $25,000 withdrawal

From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:

Federal tax a $25,000 withdrawal adds at 65
HouseholdFederal taxShare of the withdrawal
Single, $24,000 of Social Security$7903%
Married, $42,000 of Social Security$00%

Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.

The calculator, set to these numbers

Your money lasts85 yearsRuns out around age 149
Most you can withdraw for 30 years$39,348 a year$3,279 a month, rising with inflation
Taken from the portfolio$25,000 a year3.1% of the portfolio in year one

Taking $25,000 a year ($2,083 a month) from $800,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 85, around age 149. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $39,348 a year.

Success rate73%1000 seeded paths
10th percentile ending$0
Median ending$589,123
90th percentile ending$3,433,910

Other withdrawals from $800,000

Years $800,000 lasts by withdrawal, 5% return, 2% raises
Withdrawal a yearA monthLasts
$25,000$2,08360+ years
$30,000$2,50050 years
$40,000$3,33330 years
$50,000$4,16722 years
$60,000$5,00017 years
$70,000$5,83314 years
$80,000$6,66712 years

All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $800,000 lasts.

How it is worked out

The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.

Frequently asked questions

How long will $800,000 last if I withdraw $25,000 a year?
More than 60 years at a steady 5% return when the withdrawal rises 2% a year with inflation, or more than 60 years if it stays at $25,000. The first withdrawal is 3.1% of the balance.
How long will $800,000 last at $2,083 a month?
$2,083 a month is $25,000 a year, so the same more than 60 years at a 5% return with 2% yearly raises. Taxes come out of the withdrawal: from a traditional 401(k) or IRA, part of each payment goes to income tax.
How much could $800,000 pay for 30 years instead?
About $39,348 in the first year, raised 2% a year, spends it to zero in exactly 30 years at a steady 5% return; $51,953 lasts 20 years and $33,302 lasts 40.
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