$400,000 at $12,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money is still there at 95. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $17,482; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $400,000 | $12,000 | $407,400 |
| 2 | 66 | $407,400 | $12,240 | $414,918 |
| 3 | 67 | $414,918 | $12,485 | $422,555 |
| 4 | 68 | $422,555 | $12,734 | $430,311 |
| 5 | 69 | $430,311 | $12,989 | $438,188 |
| 6 | 70 | $438,188 | $13,249 | $446,186 |
| 7 | 71 | $446,186 | $13,514 | $454,306 |
| 8 | 72 | $454,306 | $13,784 | $462,548 |
| 9 | 73 | $462,548 | $14,060 | $470,912 |
| 10 | 74 | $470,912 | $14,341 | $479,400 |
| 11 | 75 | $479,400 | $14,628 | $488,010 |
| 12 | 76 | $488,010 | $14,920 | $496,744 |
| 13 | 77 | $496,744 | $15,219 | $505,602 |
| 14 | 78 | $505,602 | $15,523 | $514,582 |
| 15 | 79 | $514,582 | $15,834 | $523,686 |
| 16 | 80 | $523,686 | $16,150 | $532,913 |
| 17 | 81 | $532,913 | $16,473 | $542,261 |
| 18 | 82 | $542,261 | $16,803 | $551,731 |
| 19 | 83 | $551,731 | $17,139 | $561,322 |
| 20 | 84 | $561,322 | $17,482 | $571,032 |
| 21 | 85 | $571,032 | $17,831 | $580,861 |
| 22 | 86 | $580,861 | $18,188 | $590,806 |
| 23 | 87 | $590,806 | $18,552 | $600,867 |
| 24 | 88 | $600,867 | $18,923 | $611,042 |
| 25 | 89 | $611,042 | $19,301 | $621,327 |
| 26 | 90 | $621,327 | $19,687 | $631,722 |
| 27 | 91 | $631,722 | $20,081 | $642,223 |
| 28 | 92 | $642,223 | $20,483 | $652,828 |
| 29 | 93 | $652,828 | $20,892 | $663,532 |
| 30 | 94 | $663,532 | $21,310 | $674,333 |
| 31 | 95 | $674,333 | $21,736 | $685,227 |
| 32 | 96 | $685,227 | $22,171 | $696,208 |
| 33 | 97 | $696,208 | $22,614 | $707,273 |
| 34 | 98 | $707,273 | $23,067 | $718,417 |
| 35 | 99 | $718,417 | $23,528 | $729,633 |
| 36 | 100 | $729,633 | $23,999 | $740,916 |
| 37 | 101 | $740,916 | $24,479 | $752,260 |
| 38 | 102 | $752,260 | $24,968 | $763,656 |
| 39 | 103 | $763,656 | $25,468 | $775,098 |
| 40 | 104 | $775,098 | $25,977 | $786,577 |
The odds $400,000 lasts at $12,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $12,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 100% | 95% |
| 25 years | 98% | 87% |
| 30 years | 93% | 78% |
| 35 years | 88% | 68% |
| 40 years | 83% | 60% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 60+ years | 41 years | 34 years |
| 4% | 60+ years | 53 years | 40 years |
| 5% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 53 years |
| 6% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| 7% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
$12,000 a year from other balances
| Balance | Lasts |
|---|---|
| $150,000 | 16 years |
| $200,000 | 23 years |
| $250,000 | 32 years |
| $300,000 | 44 years |
| $350,000 | 60+ years |
| $400,000 | 60+ years |
Tax on a $12,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $0 | 0% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $0 | 0% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $12,000 a year ($1,000 a month) from $400,000 at a steady 5.0% return, the portfolio is still standing after 100 years. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $19,674 a year.
Other withdrawals from $400,000
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $12,000 | $1,000 | 60+ years |
| $15,000 | $1,250 | 50 years |
| $20,000 | $1,667 | 30 years |
| $25,000 | $2,083 | 22 years |
| $30,000 | $2,500 | 17 years |
| $40,000 | $3,333 | 12 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $400,000 lasts.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.