$150,000 at $8,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money runs out at age 91. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $11,654; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $150,000 | $8,000 | $149,100 |
| 2 | 66 | $149,100 | $8,160 | $147,987 |
| 3 | 67 | $147,987 | $8,323 | $146,647 |
| 4 | 68 | $146,647 | $8,490 | $145,065 |
| 5 | 69 | $145,065 | $8,659 | $143,226 |
| 6 | 70 | $143,226 | $8,833 | $141,113 |
| 7 | 71 | $141,113 | $9,009 | $138,709 |
| 8 | 72 | $138,709 | $9,189 | $135,995 |
| 9 | 73 | $135,995 | $9,373 | $132,953 |
| 10 | 74 | $132,953 | $9,561 | $129,562 |
| 11 | 75 | $129,562 | $9,752 | $125,801 |
| 12 | 76 | $125,801 | $9,947 | $121,646 |
| 13 | 77 | $121,646 | $10,146 | $117,075 |
| 14 | 78 | $117,075 | $10,349 | $112,063 |
| 15 | 79 | $112,063 | $10,556 | $106,582 |
| 16 | 80 | $106,582 | $10,767 | $100,606 |
| 17 | 81 | $100,606 | $10,982 | $94,105 |
| 18 | 82 | $94,105 | $11,202 | $87,048 |
| 19 | 83 | $87,048 | $11,426 | $79,404 |
| 20 | 84 | $79,404 | $11,654 | $71,137 |
| 21 | 85 | $71,137 | $11,888 | $62,211 |
| 22 | 86 | $62,211 | $12,125 | $52,590 |
| 23 | 87 | $52,590 | $12,368 | $42,234 |
| 24 | 88 | $42,234 | $12,615 | $31,099 |
| 25 | 89 | $31,099 | $12,867 | $19,144 |
| 26 | 90 | $19,144 | $13,125 | $6,320 |
| 27 | 91 | $6,320 | $6,320 | $0 |
The odds $150,000 lasts at $8,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $8,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 79% | 60% |
| 25 years | 57% | 40% |
| 30 years | 41% | 26% |
| 35 years | 31% | 18% |
| 40 years | 24% | 15% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 27 years | 21 years | 19 years |
| 4% | 33 years | 24 years | 21 years |
| 5% | 46 years | 27 years | 23 years |
| 6% | 60+ years | 32 years | 27 years |
| 7% | 60+ years | 44 years | 32 years |
$8,000 a year from other balances
| Balance | Lasts |
|---|---|
| $100,000 | 16 years |
| $150,000 | 27 years |
| $200,000 | 44 years |
| $250,000 | 60+ years |
Tax on an $8,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $0 | 0% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $0 | 0% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $8,000 a year ($667 a month) from $150,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 27, around age 91. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $7,378 a year.
Other withdrawals from $150,000
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $5,000 | $417 | 60+ years |
| $8,000 | $667 | 27 years |
| $10,000 | $833 | 20 years |
| $12,000 | $1,000 | 16 years |
| $15,000 | $1,250 | 12 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $150,000 lasts.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.