$250,000 at $8,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money is still there at 95. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $11,654; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $250,000 | $8,000 | $254,100 |
| 2 | 66 | $254,100 | $8,160 | $258,237 |
| 3 | 67 | $258,237 | $8,323 | $262,409 |
| 4 | 68 | $262,409 | $8,490 | $266,616 |
| 5 | 69 | $266,616 | $8,659 | $270,854 |
| 6 | 70 | $270,854 | $8,833 | $275,123 |
| 7 | 71 | $275,123 | $9,009 | $279,419 |
| 8 | 72 | $279,419 | $9,189 | $283,741 |
| 9 | 73 | $283,741 | $9,373 | $288,086 |
| 10 | 74 | $288,086 | $9,561 | $292,452 |
| 11 | 75 | $292,452 | $9,752 | $296,835 |
| 12 | 76 | $296,835 | $9,947 | $301,232 |
| 13 | 77 | $301,232 | $10,146 | $305,640 |
| 14 | 78 | $305,640 | $10,349 | $310,056 |
| 15 | 79 | $310,056 | $10,556 | $314,475 |
| 16 | 80 | $314,475 | $10,767 | $318,894 |
| 17 | 81 | $318,894 | $10,982 | $323,307 |
| 18 | 82 | $323,307 | $11,202 | $327,710 |
| 19 | 83 | $327,710 | $11,426 | $332,099 |
| 20 | 84 | $332,099 | $11,654 | $336,466 |
| 21 | 85 | $336,466 | $11,888 | $340,808 |
| 22 | 86 | $340,808 | $12,125 | $345,116 |
| 23 | 87 | $345,116 | $12,368 | $349,386 |
| 24 | 88 | $349,386 | $12,615 | $353,609 |
| 25 | 89 | $353,609 | $12,867 | $357,779 |
| 26 | 90 | $357,779 | $13,125 | $361,887 |
| 27 | 91 | $361,887 | $13,387 | $365,925 |
| 28 | 92 | $365,925 | $13,655 | $369,883 |
| 29 | 93 | $369,883 | $13,928 | $373,752 |
| 30 | 94 | $373,752 | $14,207 | $377,523 |
| 31 | 95 | $377,523 | $14,491 | $381,184 |
| 32 | 96 | $381,184 | $14,781 | $384,723 |
| 33 | 97 | $384,723 | $15,076 | $388,129 |
| 34 | 98 | $388,129 | $15,378 | $391,389 |
| 35 | 99 | $391,389 | $15,685 | $394,489 |
| 36 | 100 | $394,489 | $15,999 | $397,414 |
| 37 | 101 | $397,414 | $16,319 | $400,150 |
| 38 | 102 | $400,150 | $16,645 | $402,679 |
| 39 | 103 | $402,679 | $16,978 | $404,986 |
| 40 | 104 | $404,986 | $17,318 | $407,051 |
The odds $250,000 lasts at $8,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $8,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 99% | 93% |
| 25 years | 95% | 85% |
| 30 years | 90% | 74% |
| 35 years | 85% | 63% |
| 40 years | 79% | 55% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 60+ years | 38 years | 32 years |
| 4% | 60+ years | 48 years | 37 years |
| 5% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 48 years |
| 6% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| 7% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
$8,000 a year from other balances
| Balance | Lasts |
|---|---|
| $100,000 | 16 years |
| $150,000 | 27 years |
| $200,000 | 44 years |
| $250,000 | 60+ years |
Tax on an $8,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $0 | 0% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $0 | 0% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $8,000 a year ($667 a month) from $250,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 78, around age 142. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $12,296 a year.
Other withdrawals from $250,000
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $8,000 | $667 | 60+ years |
| $10,000 | $833 | 44 years |
| $12,000 | $1,000 | 32 years |
| $15,000 | $1,250 | 23 years |
| $20,000 | $1,667 | 16 years |
| $25,000 | $2,083 | 12 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $250,000 lasts.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.