$250,000 at $12,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money runs out at age 96. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $17,482; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $250,000 | $12,000 | $249,900 |
| 2 | 66 | $249,900 | $12,240 | $249,543 |
| 3 | 67 | $249,543 | $12,485 | $248,911 |
| 4 | 68 | $248,911 | $12,734 | $247,985 |
| 5 | 69 | $247,985 | $12,989 | $246,746 |
| 6 | 70 | $246,746 | $13,249 | $245,172 |
| 7 | 71 | $245,172 | $13,514 | $243,241 |
| 8 | 72 | $243,241 | $13,784 | $240,930 |
| 9 | 73 | $240,930 | $14,060 | $238,213 |
| 10 | 74 | $238,213 | $14,341 | $235,066 |
| 11 | 75 | $235,066 | $14,628 | $231,460 |
| 12 | 76 | $231,460 | $14,920 | $227,366 |
| 13 | 77 | $227,366 | $15,219 | $222,754 |
| 14 | 78 | $222,754 | $15,523 | $217,593 |
| 15 | 79 | $217,593 | $15,834 | $211,847 |
| 16 | 80 | $211,847 | $16,150 | $205,481 |
| 17 | 81 | $205,481 | $16,473 | $198,458 |
| 18 | 82 | $198,458 | $16,803 | $190,738 |
| 19 | 83 | $190,738 | $17,139 | $182,279 |
| 20 | 84 | $182,279 | $17,482 | $173,037 |
| 21 | 85 | $173,037 | $17,831 | $162,966 |
| 22 | 86 | $162,966 | $18,188 | $152,017 |
| 23 | 87 | $152,017 | $18,552 | $140,139 |
| 24 | 88 | $140,139 | $18,923 | $127,277 |
| 25 | 89 | $127,277 | $19,301 | $113,374 |
| 26 | 90 | $113,374 | $19,687 | $98,371 |
| 27 | 91 | $98,371 | $20,081 | $82,205 |
| 28 | 92 | $82,205 | $20,483 | $64,808 |
| 29 | 93 | $64,808 | $20,892 | $46,112 |
| 30 | 94 | $46,112 | $21,310 | $26,042 |
| 31 | 95 | $26,042 | $21,736 | $4,521 |
| 32 | 96 | $4,521 | $4,521 | $0 |
The odds $250,000 lasts at $12,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $12,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 88% | 71% |
| 25 years | 71% | 51% |
| 30 years | 54% | 37% |
| 35 years | 43% | 27% |
| 40 years | 36% | 21% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 32 years | 24 years | 21 years |
| 4% | 42 years | 27 years | 24 years |
| 5% | 60+ years | 32 years | 27 years |
| 6% | 60+ years | 41 years | 32 years |
| 7% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 40 years |
$12,000 a year from other balances
| Balance | Lasts |
|---|---|
| $150,000 | 16 years |
| $200,000 | 23 years |
| $250,000 | 32 years |
| $300,000 | 44 years |
| $350,000 | 60+ years |
| $400,000 | 60+ years |
Tax on a $12,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $0 | 0% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $0 | 0% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $12,000 a year ($1,000 a month) from $250,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 32, around age 96. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $12,296 a year.
Other withdrawals from $250,000
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $8,000 | $667 | 60+ years |
| $10,000 | $833 | 44 years |
| $12,000 | $1,000 | 32 years |
| $15,000 | $1,250 | 23 years |
| $20,000 | $1,667 | 16 years |
| $25,000 | $2,083 | 12 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $250,000 lasts.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.