$800,000 at $40,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money runs out at age 94. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $58,272; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $800,000 | $40,000 | $798,000 |
| 2 | 66 | $798,000 | $40,800 | $795,060 |
| 3 | 67 | $795,060 | $41,616 | $791,116 |
| 4 | 68 | $791,116 | $42,448 | $786,101 |
| 5 | 69 | $786,101 | $43,297 | $779,944 |
| 6 | 70 | $779,944 | $44,163 | $772,570 |
| 7 | 71 | $772,570 | $45,046 | $763,900 |
| 8 | 72 | $763,900 | $45,947 | $753,850 |
| 9 | 73 | $753,850 | $46,866 | $742,333 |
| 10 | 74 | $742,333 | $47,804 | $729,255 |
| 11 | 75 | $729,255 | $48,760 | $714,520 |
| 12 | 76 | $714,520 | $49,735 | $698,025 |
| 13 | 77 | $698,025 | $50,730 | $679,660 |
| 14 | 78 | $679,660 | $51,744 | $659,311 |
| 15 | 79 | $659,311 | $52,779 | $636,859 |
| 16 | 80 | $636,859 | $53,835 | $612,175 |
| 17 | 81 | $612,175 | $54,911 | $585,127 |
| 18 | 82 | $585,127 | $56,010 | $555,573 |
| 19 | 83 | $555,573 | $57,130 | $523,366 |
| 20 | 84 | $523,366 | $58,272 | $488,348 |
| 21 | 85 | $488,348 | $59,438 | $450,355 |
| 22 | 86 | $450,355 | $60,627 | $409,215 |
| 23 | 87 | $409,215 | $61,839 | $364,745 |
| 24 | 88 | $364,745 | $63,076 | $316,752 |
| 25 | 89 | $316,752 | $64,337 | $265,035 |
| 26 | 90 | $265,035 | $65,624 | $209,382 |
| 27 | 91 | $209,382 | $66,937 | $149,567 |
| 28 | 92 | $149,567 | $68,275 | $85,356 |
| 29 | 93 | $85,356 | $69,641 | $16,501 |
| 30 | 94 | $16,501 | $16,501 | $0 |
The odds $800,000 lasts at $40,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $40,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 85% | 67% |
| 25 years | 65% | 45% |
| 30 years | 49% | 33% |
| 35 years | 39% | 24% |
| 40 years | 31% | 18% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 30 years | 23 years | 20 years |
| 4% | 38 years | 26 years | 23 years |
| 5% | 60+ years | 30 years | 25 years |
| 6% | 60+ years | 37 years | 30 years |
| 7% | 60+ years | 57 years | 37 years |
With Social Security covering part of it
If Social Security pays part of the $40,000 from some point, the portfolio only pays the rest. Retiring at 65 and claiming at 67 means two years before benefits start; retiring at 62, five.
| Benefit a month | Retire at 62 | Retire at 65 | Retire at 67 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,500 | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| $2,000 | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
| $2,500 | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
Tax on a $40,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $4,030 | 10% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $1,295 | 3% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $40,000 a year ($3,333 a month) from $800,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 30, around age 94. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $39,348 a year.
Other withdrawals from $800,000
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $25,000 | $2,083 | 60+ years |
| $30,000 | $2,500 | 50 years |
| $40,000 | $3,333 | 30 years |
| $50,000 | $4,167 | 22 years |
| $60,000 | $5,000 | 17 years |
| $70,000 | $5,833 | 14 years |
| $80,000 | $6,667 | 12 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $800,000 lasts. The same $40,000 a year from $400,000, $450,000, $500,000, $600,000, $700,000, $750,000, $900,000, $1 million or $1.25 million.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.