$10,000 for 20 years at returns from 4% to 10%
| Return | Balance | Multiple | In today’s dollars |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4% | $21,911 | 2.2× | $12,132 |
| 5% | $26,533 | 2.7× | $14,691 |
| 6% | $32,071 | 3.2× | $17,757 |
| 7% | $38,697 | 3.9× | $21,426 |
| 8% | $46,610 | 4.7× | $25,807 |
| 10% | $67,275 | 6.7× | $37,249 |
Year by year at 7%
| Year | Put in so far | Balance | In today’s dollars |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $10,000 | $10,700 | $10,388 |
| 2 | $10,000 | $11,449 | $10,792 |
| 3 | $10,000 | $12,250 | $11,211 |
| 4 | $10,000 | $13,108 | $11,646 |
| 5 | $10,000 | $14,026 | $12,099 |
| 6 | $10,000 | $15,007 | $12,568 |
| 7 | $10,000 | $16,058 | $13,056 |
| 8 | $10,000 | $17,182 | $13,564 |
| 9 | $10,000 | $18,385 | $14,090 |
| 10 | $10,000 | $19,672 | $14,637 |
| 11 | $10,000 | $21,049 | $15,206 |
| 12 | $10,000 | $22,522 | $15,796 |
| 13 | $10,000 | $24,098 | $16,410 |
| 14 | $10,000 | $25,785 | $17,047 |
| 15 | $10,000 | $27,590 | $17,709 |
| 16 | $10,000 | $29,522 | $18,397 |
| 17 | $10,000 | $31,588 | $19,111 |
| 18 | $10,000 | $33,799 | $19,854 |
| 19 | $10,000 | $36,165 | $20,625 |
| 20 | $10,000 | $38,697 | $21,426 |
The range in 1,000 simulated markets
A 7% average does not arrive as 7% every year. In 1,000 simulated sequences of returns averaging 7% with 12% volatility, this is where $10,000 ended up: 1 in 10 markets finished below the first figure, half below the middle one, and 1 in 10 above the last.
| After | Weak (1 in 10 lower) | Middle | Strong (1 in 10 higher) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 years | $11,639 | $18,489 | $28,485 |
| 20 years | $17,397 | $33,374 | $64,178 |
The middle of the simulation sits below the steady 7% figure of $38,697 because ups and downs cost compounding: a 20% loss needs a 25% gain to get back.
What $38,697 would pay in retirement
At a 4% first-year withdrawal, $38,697 pays about $1,548 a year, $129 a month, before tax; in today’s dollars that is about $857 a year. How long a balance near it lasts at each withdrawal: how long $100,000 lasts. To stop saving early and let growth do the rest, see Coast FIRE numbers by age.
$10,000 for other terms
| Years | Balance | In today’s dollars |
|---|---|---|
| $10,000 for 5 years | $14,026 | $12,099 |
| $10,000 for 10 years | $19,672 | $14,637 |
| $10,000 for 15 years | $27,590 | $17,709 |
| 20 years | $38,697 | $21,426 |
| $10,000 for 25 years | $54,274 | $25,922 |
| $10,000 for 30 years | $76,123 | $31,361 |
| $10,000 for 40 years | $149,745 | $45,905 |
| $10,000 for 50 years | $294,570 | $67,194 |
Other amounts for 20 years
$1,000: $3,870, $5,000: $19,348, $20,000: $77,394, $25,000: $96,742, $50,000: $193,484, $100,000: $386,968, $200,000: $773,937, $250,000: $967,421, $500,000: $1,934,842, $1,000,000: $3,869,684, $2,000,000: $7,739,369.
How it is worked out
Monthly amounts are deposited at the end of each month and compounded monthly at the rate that equals the annual return; lump sums compound once a year. The headline return is 7% a year, the Trinity-style average the site’s retirement pages use; stock-heavy portfolios have averaged more over long periods and bond-heavy ones less, which is why every page shows 4% to 10%. Today’s dollars divide by 3% inflation a year. The range comes from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns averaging 7% with 12% volatility, with each year’s deposits added through the year. Fees and taxes are not taken out. More on the methodology page.