$1 million for 40 years at returns from 4% to 10%
| Return | Balance | Multiple | In today’s dollars |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4% | $4,801,021 | 4.8× | $1,471,786 |
| 5% | $7,039,989 | 7.0× | $2,158,157 |
| 6% | $10,285,718 | 10.3× | $3,153,157 |
| 7% | $14,974,458 | 15.0× | $4,590,522 |
| 8% | $21,724,521 | 21.7× | $6,659,801 |
| 10% | $45,259,256 | 45.3× | $13,874,534 |
Year by year at 7%
| Year | Put in so far | Balance | In today’s dollars |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $1,000,000 | $1,070,000 | $1,038,835 |
| 2 | $1,000,000 | $1,144,900 | $1,079,178 |
| 3 | $1,000,000 | $1,225,043 | $1,121,088 |
| 5 | $1,000,000 | $1,402,552 | $1,209,853 |
| 10 | $1,000,000 | $1,967,151 | $1,463,745 |
| 15 | $1,000,000 | $2,759,032 | $1,770,917 |
| 20 | $1,000,000 | $3,869,684 | $2,142,550 |
| 25 | $1,000,000 | $5,427,433 | $2,592,172 |
| 30 | $1,000,000 | $7,612,255 | $3,136,148 |
| 35 | $1,000,000 | $10,676,581 | $3,794,280 |
| 40 | $1,000,000 | $14,974,458 | $4,590,522 |
The range in 1,000 simulated markets
A 7% average does not arrive as 7% every year. In 1,000 simulated sequences of returns averaging 7% with 12% volatility, this is where $1 million ended up: 1 in 10 markets finished below the first figure, half below the middle one, and 1 in 10 above the last.
| After | Weak (1 in 10 lower) | Middle | Strong (1 in 10 higher) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 years | $1,739,653 | $3,337,402 | $6,417,834 |
| 40 years | $4,554,801 | $11,692,445 | $29,533,928 |
The middle of the simulation sits below the steady 7% figure of $14,974,458 because ups and downs cost compounding: a 20% loss needs a 25% gain to get back.
What $14,974,458 would pay in retirement
At a 4% first-year withdrawal, $14,974,458 pays about $598,978 a year, $49,915 a month, before tax; in today’s dollars that is about $183,621 a year. How long a balance near it lasts at each withdrawal: how long $5 million lasts. To stop saving early and let growth do the rest, see Coast FIRE numbers by age.
$1 million for other terms
| Years | Balance | In today’s dollars |
|---|---|---|
| $1 million for 5 years | $1,402,552 | $1,209,853 |
| $1 million for 10 years | $1,967,151 | $1,463,745 |
| $1 million for 15 years | $2,759,032 | $1,770,917 |
| $1 million for 20 years | $3,869,684 | $2,142,550 |
| $1 million for 25 years | $5,427,433 | $2,592,172 |
| $1 million for 30 years | $7,612,255 | $3,136,148 |
| 40 years | $14,974,458 | $4,590,522 |
| $1 million for 50 years | $29,457,025 | $6,719,356 |
Other amounts for 40 years
$1,000: $14,974, $5,000: $74,872, $10,000: $149,745, $20,000: $299,489, $25,000: $374,361, $50,000: $748,723, $100,000: $1,497,446, $200,000: $2,994,892, $250,000: $3,743,614, $500,000: $7,487,229, $2,000,000: $29,948,916.
How it is worked out
Monthly amounts are deposited at the end of each month and compounded monthly at the rate that equals the annual return; lump sums compound once a year. The headline return is 7% a year, the Trinity-style average the site’s retirement pages use; stock-heavy portfolios have averaged more over long periods and bond-heavy ones less, which is why every page shows 4% to 10%. Today’s dollars divide by 3% inflation a year. The range comes from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns averaging 7% with 12% volatility, with each year’s deposits added through the year. Fees and taxes are not taken out. More on the methodology page.