$5 million at $250,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money runs out at age 94. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $364,203; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $5,000,000 | $250,000 | $4,987,500 |
| 2 | 66 | $4,987,500 | $255,000 | $4,969,125 |
| 3 | 67 | $4,969,125 | $260,100 | $4,944,476 |
| 4 | 68 | $4,944,476 | $265,302 | $4,913,133 |
| 5 | 69 | $4,913,133 | $270,608 | $4,874,651 |
| 6 | 70 | $4,874,651 | $276,020 | $4,828,563 |
| 7 | 71 | $4,828,563 | $281,541 | $4,774,373 |
| 8 | 72 | $4,774,373 | $287,171 | $4,711,562 |
| 9 | 73 | $4,711,562 | $292,915 | $4,639,579 |
| 10 | 74 | $4,639,579 | $298,773 | $4,557,846 |
| 11 | 75 | $4,557,846 | $304,749 | $4,465,753 |
| 12 | 76 | $4,465,753 | $310,844 | $4,362,654 |
| 13 | 77 | $4,362,654 | $317,060 | $4,247,874 |
| 14 | 78 | $4,247,874 | $323,402 | $4,120,696 |
| 15 | 79 | $4,120,696 | $329,870 | $3,980,367 |
| 16 | 80 | $3,980,367 | $336,467 | $3,826,095 |
| 17 | 81 | $3,826,095 | $343,196 | $3,657,044 |
| 18 | 82 | $3,657,044 | $350,060 | $3,472,333 |
| 19 | 83 | $3,472,333 | $357,062 | $3,271,035 |
| 20 | 84 | $3,271,035 | $364,203 | $3,052,173 |
| 21 | 85 | $3,052,173 | $371,487 | $2,814,721 |
| 22 | 86 | $2,814,721 | $378,917 | $2,557,594 |
| 23 | 87 | $2,557,594 | $386,495 | $2,279,654 |
| 24 | 88 | $2,279,654 | $394,225 | $1,979,701 |
| 25 | 89 | $1,979,701 | $402,109 | $1,656,471 |
| 26 | 90 | $1,656,471 | $410,151 | $1,308,636 |
| 27 | 91 | $1,308,636 | $418,355 | $934,795 |
| 28 | 92 | $934,795 | $426,722 | $533,478 |
| 29 | 93 | $533,478 | $435,256 | $103,133 |
| 30 | 94 | $103,133 | $103,133 | $0 |
The odds $5 million lasts at $250,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $250,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 85% | 67% |
| 25 years | 65% | 45% |
| 30 years | 49% | 33% |
| 35 years | 39% | 24% |
| 40 years | 31% | 18% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 30 years | 23 years | 21 years |
| 4% | 38 years | 26 years | 23 years |
| 5% | 60+ years | 30 years | 25 years |
| 6% | 60+ years | 37 years | 30 years |
| 7% | 60+ years | 57 years | 37 years |
With Social Security covering part of it
If Social Security pays part of the $250,000 from some point, the portfolio only pays the rest. Retiring at 65 and claiming at 67 means two years before benefits start; retiring at 62, five.
| Benefit a month | Retire at 62 | Retire at 65 | Retire at 67 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,500 | 33 years | 33 years | 33 years |
| $2,000 | 34 years | 34 years | 35 years |
| $2,500 | 35 years | 36 years | 37 years |
Tax on a $250,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $57,176 | 23% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $45,244 | 18% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $250,000 a year ($20,833 a month) from $5,000,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 30, around age 94. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $245,927 a year.
Other withdrawals from $5 million
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $150,000 | $12,500 | 60+ years |
| $200,000 | $16,667 | 44 years |
| $250,000 | $20,833 | 30 years |
| $300,000 | $25,000 | 23 years |
| $400,000 | $33,333 | 16 years |
| $500,000 | $41,667 | 12 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $5 million lasts. The same $250,000 a year from $2.5 million, $3 million or $4 million.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.