$250,000 at $10,000 a year, year by year
Starting at 65, the money runs out at age 108. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $14,568; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.
| Year | Age | Balance at start | Withdrawal | Balance at end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | $250,000 | $10,000 | $252,000 |
| 2 | 66 | $252,000 | $10,200 | $253,890 |
| 3 | 67 | $253,890 | $10,404 | $255,660 |
| 4 | 68 | $255,660 | $10,612 | $257,301 |
| 5 | 69 | $257,301 | $10,824 | $258,800 |
| 6 | 70 | $258,800 | $11,041 | $260,147 |
| 7 | 71 | $260,147 | $11,262 | $261,330 |
| 8 | 72 | $261,330 | $11,487 | $262,335 |
| 9 | 73 | $262,335 | $11,717 | $263,150 |
| 10 | 74 | $263,150 | $11,951 | $263,759 |
| 11 | 75 | $263,759 | $12,190 | $264,147 |
| 12 | 76 | $264,147 | $12,434 | $264,299 |
| 13 | 77 | $264,299 | $12,682 | $264,197 |
| 14 | 78 | $264,197 | $12,936 | $263,824 |
| 15 | 79 | $263,824 | $13,195 | $263,161 |
| 16 | 80 | $263,161 | $13,459 | $262,188 |
| 17 | 81 | $262,188 | $13,728 | $260,883 |
| 18 | 82 | $260,883 | $14,002 | $259,224 |
| 19 | 83 | $259,224 | $14,282 | $257,189 |
| 20 | 84 | $257,189 | $14,568 | $254,752 |
| 21 | 85 | $254,752 | $14,859 | $251,887 |
| 22 | 86 | $251,887 | $15,157 | $248,567 |
| 23 | 87 | $248,567 | $15,460 | $244,762 |
| 24 | 88 | $244,762 | $15,769 | $240,443 |
| 25 | 89 | $240,443 | $16,084 | $235,577 |
| 26 | 90 | $235,577 | $16,406 | $230,129 |
| 27 | 91 | $230,129 | $16,734 | $224,065 |
| 28 | 92 | $224,065 | $17,069 | $217,346 |
| 29 | 93 | $217,346 | $17,410 | $209,932 |
| 30 | 94 | $209,932 | $17,758 | $201,782 |
| 31 | 95 | $201,782 | $18,114 | $192,852 |
| 32 | 96 | $192,852 | $18,476 | $183,095 |
| 33 | 97 | $183,095 | $18,845 | $172,462 |
| 34 | 98 | $172,462 | $19,222 | $160,902 |
| 35 | 99 | $160,902 | $19,607 | $148,360 |
| 36 | 100 | $148,360 | $19,999 | $134,779 |
| 37 | 101 | $134,779 | $20,399 | $120,099 |
| 38 | 102 | $120,099 | $20,807 | $104,257 |
| 39 | 103 | $104,257 | $21,223 | $87,186 |
| 40 | 104 | $87,186 | $21,647 | $68,815 |
The odds $250,000 lasts at $10,000 a year
Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $10,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.
| For | Trinity-style (7%, 12%) | Cautious (5%, 15%) |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 95% | 85% |
| 25 years | 87% | 68% |
| 30 years | 77% | 53% |
| 35 years | 66% | 42% |
| 40 years | 58% | 36% |
What other returns and inflation do
| Return | No raise | 2% raise | 3% raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 45 years | 29 years | 25 years |
| 4% | 60+ years | 34 years | 29 years |
| 5% | 60+ years | 44 years | 34 years |
| 6% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 43 years |
| 7% | 60+ years | 60+ years | 60+ years |
$10,000 a year from other balances
| Balance | Lasts |
|---|---|
| $100,000 | 12 years |
| $150,000 | 20 years |
| $200,000 | 30 years |
| $250,000 | 44 years |
| $300,000 | 60+ years |
Tax on a $10,000 withdrawal
From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:
| Household | Federal tax | Share of the withdrawal |
|---|---|---|
| Single, $24,000 of Social Security | $0 | 0% |
| Married, $42,000 of Social Security | $0 | 0% |
Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.
The calculator, set to these numbers
Taking $10,000 a year ($833 a month) from $250,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 44, around age 108. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $12,296 a year.
Other withdrawals from $250,000
| Withdrawal a year | A month | Lasts |
|---|---|---|
| $8,000 | $667 | 60+ years |
| $10,000 | $833 | 44 years |
| $12,000 | $1,000 | 32 years |
| $15,000 | $1,250 | 23 years |
| $20,000 | $1,667 | 16 years |
| $25,000 | $2,083 | 12 years |
All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $250,000 lasts.
How it is worked out
The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.