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How long will $1 million last at $30,000 a year?

More than 60 years at a steady 5% return, with the $30,000 ($2,500 a month) raised 2% a year for inflation. Below: the balance year by year, the odds in 1,000 simulated markets, what other returns do, Social Security, the tax on the withdrawal, and a calculator set to these numbers.

Short answer: About more than 60 years at a steady 5% return, with the $30,000 raised 2% a year for inflation: retiring at 60 it runs out at past 120, at 65 at past 125. That is 3% of $1 million in the first year. At 7% it lasts more than 60 years; at 3%, 41 years.

Updated · By Berkay Kolay

$1 million at $30,000 a year, year by year

Starting at 65, the money is still there at 95. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $43,704; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.

$1 million, $30,000 a year rising 2%, 5% return, from age 65
YearAgeBalance at startWithdrawalBalance at end
165$1,000,000$30,000$1,018,500
266$1,018,500$30,600$1,037,295
367$1,037,295$31,212$1,056,387
468$1,056,387$31,836$1,075,778
569$1,075,778$32,473$1,095,471
670$1,095,471$33,122$1,115,466
771$1,115,466$33,785$1,135,765
872$1,135,765$34,461$1,156,370
973$1,156,370$35,150$1,177,281
1074$1,177,281$35,853$1,198,499
1175$1,198,499$36,570$1,220,026
1276$1,220,026$37,301$1,241,861
1377$1,241,861$38,047$1,264,005
1478$1,264,005$38,808$1,286,456
1579$1,286,456$39,584$1,309,215
1680$1,309,215$40,376$1,332,281
1781$1,332,281$41,184$1,355,653
1882$1,355,653$42,007$1,379,328
1983$1,379,328$42,847$1,403,304
2084$1,403,304$43,704$1,427,580
2185$1,427,580$44,578$1,452,152
2286$1,452,152$45,470$1,477,016
2387$1,477,016$46,379$1,502,168
2488$1,502,168$47,307$1,527,604
2589$1,527,604$48,253$1,553,319
2690$1,553,319$49,218$1,579,305
2791$1,579,305$50,203$1,605,558
2892$1,605,558$51,207$1,632,069
2993$1,632,069$52,231$1,658,830
3094$1,658,830$53,275$1,685,833
3195$1,685,833$54,341$1,713,066
3296$1,713,066$55,428$1,740,521
3397$1,740,521$56,536$1,768,184
3498$1,768,184$57,667$1,796,042
3599$1,796,042$58,820$1,824,083
36100$1,824,083$59,997$1,852,291
37101$1,852,291$61,197$1,880,649
38102$1,880,649$62,421$1,909,140
39103$1,909,140$63,669$1,937,744
40104$1,937,744$64,942$1,966,442

The odds $1 million lasts at $30,000 a year

Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $30,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.

Chance $30,000 a year from $1 million lasts, 1,000 simulated markets
ForTrinity-style (7%, 12%)Cautious (5%, 15%)
20 years100%95%
25 years98%87%
30 years93%78%
35 years88%68%
40 years83%60%

What other returns and inflation do

Years $30,000 a year from $1 million lasts, by return and yearly raise
ReturnNo raise2% raise3% raise
3%60+ years41 years34 years
4%60+ years53 years40 years
5%60+ years60+ years53 years
6%60+ years60+ years60+ years
7%60+ years60+ years60+ years

$30,000 a year from other balances

Years $30,000 a year lasts, by balance, 5% return
BalanceLasts
$300,00012 years
$350,00014 years
$400,00017 years
$450,00020 years
$500,00023 years
$600,00030 years
$700,00038 years
$750,00044 years
$800,00050 years
$900,00060+ years
$1 million60+ years

Tax on a $30,000 withdrawal

From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:

Federal tax a $30,000 withdrawal adds at 65
HouseholdFederal taxShare of the withdrawal
Single, $24,000 of Social Security$1,8106%
Married, $42,000 of Social Security$00%

Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.

The calculator, set to these numbers

Your money lasts100+ yearsGrowth covers the withdrawals on these inputs
Most you can withdraw for 30 years$49,185 a year$4,099 a month, rising with inflation
Taken from the portfolio$30,000 a year3.0% of the portfolio in year one

Taking $30,000 a year ($2,500 a month) from $1,000,000 at a steady 5.0% return, the portfolio is still standing after 100 years. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $49,185 a year.

Success rate76%1000 seeded paths
10th percentile ending$0
Median ending$824,049
90th percentile ending$4,475,970

Other withdrawals from $1 million

Years $1 million lasts by withdrawal, 5% return, 2% raises
Withdrawal a yearA monthLasts
$30,000$2,50060+ years
$40,000$3,33344 years
$50,000$4,16730 years
$60,000$5,00023 years
$70,000$5,83319 years
$80,000$6,66716 years
$100,000$8,33312 years

All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $1 million lasts.

How it is worked out

The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.

Frequently asked questions

How long will $1 million last if I withdraw $30,000 a year?
More than 60 years at a steady 5% return when the withdrawal rises 2% a year with inflation, or more than 60 years if it stays at $30,000. The first withdrawal is 3% of the balance.
How long will $1 million last at $2,500 a month?
$2,500 a month is $30,000 a year, so the same more than 60 years at a 5% return with 2% yearly raises. Taxes come out of the withdrawal: from a traditional 401(k) or IRA, part of each payment goes to income tax.
How much could $1 million pay for 30 years instead?
About $49,185 in the first year, raised 2% a year, spends it to zero in exactly 30 years at a steady 5% return; $64,941 lasts 20 years and $41,628 lasts 40.
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