How long will $150,000 last at $5,000 a year?

More than 60 years at a steady 5% return, with the $5,000 ($417 a month) raised 2% a year for inflation. Below: the balance year by year, the odds in 1,000 simulated markets, what other returns do, Social Security, the tax on the withdrawal, and a calculator set to these numbers.

Short answer: About more than 60 years at a steady 5% return, with the $5,000 raised 2% a year for inflation: retiring at 60 it runs out at past 120, at 65 at past 125. That is 3.3% of $150,000 in the first year. At 7% it lasts more than 60 years; at 3%, 36 years.

Updated November 11, 2026 · By Berkay Kolay

$150,000 at $5,000 a year, year by year

Starting at 65, the money is still there at 95. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $7,284; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.

$150,000, $5,000 a year rising 2%, 5% return, from age 65
Year	Age	Balance at start	Withdrawal	Balance at end
1	65	$150,000	$5,000	$152,250
2	66	$152,250	$5,100	$154,508
3	67	$154,508	$5,202	$156,771
4	68	$156,771	$5,306	$159,038
5	69	$159,038	$5,412	$161,307
6	70	$161,307	$5,520	$163,576
7	71	$163,576	$5,631	$165,842
8	72	$165,842	$5,743	$168,104
9	73	$168,104	$5,858	$170,358
10	74	$170,358	$5,975	$172,602
11	75	$172,602	$6,095	$174,832
12	76	$174,832	$6,217	$177,046
13	77	$177,046	$6,341	$179,240
14	78	$179,240	$6,468	$181,410
15	79	$181,410	$6,597	$183,554
16	80	$183,554	$6,729	$185,666
17	81	$185,666	$6,864	$187,742
18	82	$187,742	$7,001	$189,778
19	83	$189,778	$7,141	$191,768
20	84	$191,768	$7,284	$193,708
21	85	$193,708	$7,430	$195,593
22	86	$195,593	$7,578	$197,415
23	87	$197,415	$7,730	$199,169
24	88	$199,169	$7,884	$200,849
25	89	$200,849	$8,042	$202,447
26	90	$202,447	$8,203	$203,956
27	91	$203,956	$8,367	$205,369
28	92	$205,369	$8,534	$206,676
29	93	$206,676	$8,705	$207,869
30	94	$207,869	$8,879	$208,940
31	95	$208,940	$9,057	$209,877
32	96	$209,877	$9,238	$210,671
33	97	$210,671	$9,423	$211,311
34	98	$211,311	$9,611	$211,785
35	99	$211,785	$9,803	$212,080
36	100	$212,080	$9,999	$212,185
37	101	$212,185	$10,199	$212,085
38	102	$212,085	$10,403	$211,765
39	103	$211,765	$10,611	$211,212
40	104	$211,212	$10,824	$210,407

The odds $150,000 lasts at $5,000 a year

Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $5,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.

Chance $5,000 a year from $150,000 lasts, 1,000 simulated markets
For	Trinity-style (7%, 12%)	Cautious (5%, 15%)
20 years	99%	92%
25 years	94%	82%
30 years	89%	70%
35 years	82%	60%
40 years	76%	51%

What other returns and inflation do

Years $5,000 a year from $150,000 lasts, by return and yearly raise
Return	No raise	2% raise	3% raise
3%	60+ years	36 years	30 years
4%	60+ years	45 years	36 years
5%	60+ years	60+ years	45 years
6%	60+ years	60+ years	60+ years
7%	60+ years	60+ years	60+ years

$5,000 a year from other balances

Years $5,000 a year lasts, by balance, 5% return
Balance	Lasts
$100,000	30 years
$150,000	60+ years

Tax on a $5,000 withdrawal

From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:

Federal tax a $5,000 withdrawal adds at 65
Household	Federal tax	Share of the withdrawal
Single, $24,000 of Social Security	$0	0%
Married, $42,000 of Social Security	$0	0%

Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.

The calculator, set to these numbers

Your age

Savings or portfolio ($)

Enter spending and income

Spending a year (today's $)

Social Security or pension a year (today's $)

Tax rate on withdrawals (%)

Annual return (%)

Inflation (%)

Years it needs to last

Your money lasts68 yearsRuns out around age 132

Most you can withdraw for 30 years$7,378 a year$615 a month, rising with inflation

Taken from the portfolio$5,000 a year3.3% of the portfolio in year one

Taking $5,000 a year ($417 a month) from $150,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 68, around age 132. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $7,378 a year.

Run 1,000 market paths

Success rate69%1000 seeded paths

10th percentile ending$0

Median ending$88,456

90th percentile ending$609,683

Other withdrawals from $150,000

Years $150,000 lasts by withdrawal, 5% return, 2% raises
Withdrawal a year	A month	Lasts
$5,000	$417	60+ years
$8,000	$667	27 years
$10,000	$833	20 years
$12,000	$1,000	16 years
$15,000	$1,250	12 years

All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $150,000 lasts.

How it is worked out

The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.

Frequently asked questions

How long will $150,000 last if I withdraw $5,000 a year?

More than 60 years at a steady 5% return when the withdrawal rises 2% a year with inflation, or more than 60 years if it stays at $5,000. The first withdrawal is 3.3% of the balance.

How long will $150,000 last at $417 a month?

$417 a month is $5,000 a year, so the same more than 60 years at a 5% return with 2% yearly raises. Taxes come out of the withdrawal: from a traditional 401(k) or IRA, part of each payment goes to income tax.

How much could $150,000 pay for 30 years instead?

About $7,378 in the first year, raised 2% a year, spends it to zero in exactly 30 years at a steady 5% return; $9,741 lasts 20 years and $6,244 lasts 40.

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