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How long will $900,000 last at $30,000 a year?

More than 60 years at a steady 5% return, with the $30,000 ($2,500 a month) raised 2% a year for inflation. Below: the balance year by year, the odds in 1,000 simulated markets, what other returns do, Social Security, the tax on the withdrawal, and a calculator set to these numbers.

Short answer: About more than 60 years at a steady 5% return, with the $30,000 raised 2% a year for inflation: retiring at 60 it runs out at past 120, at 65 at past 125. That is 3.3% of $900,000 in the first year. At 7% it lasts more than 60 years; at 3%, 36 years.

Updated · By Berkay Kolay

$900,000 at $30,000 a year, year by year

Starting at 65, the money is still there at 95. The withdrawal grows 2% a year, so by year 20 it is $43,704; the balance earns 5% on what is left after each withdrawal.

$900,000, $30,000 a year rising 2%, 5% return, from age 65
YearAgeBalance at startWithdrawalBalance at end
165$900,000$30,000$913,500
266$913,500$30,600$927,045
367$927,045$31,212$940,625
468$940,625$31,836$954,228
569$954,228$32,473$967,843
670$967,843$33,122$981,456
771$981,456$33,785$995,055
872$995,055$34,461$1,008,624
973$1,008,624$35,150$1,022,148
1074$1,022,148$35,853$1,035,610
1175$1,035,610$36,570$1,048,992
1276$1,048,992$37,301$1,062,275
1377$1,062,275$38,047$1,075,440
1478$1,075,440$38,808$1,088,463
1579$1,088,463$39,584$1,101,323
1680$1,101,323$40,376$1,113,994
1781$1,113,994$41,184$1,126,451
1882$1,126,451$42,007$1,138,666
1983$1,138,666$42,847$1,150,609
2084$1,150,609$43,704$1,162,250
2185$1,162,250$44,578$1,173,555
2286$1,173,555$45,470$1,184,490
2387$1,184,490$46,379$1,195,016
2488$1,195,016$47,307$1,205,094
2589$1,205,094$48,253$1,214,683
2690$1,214,683$49,218$1,223,738
2791$1,223,738$50,203$1,232,212
2892$1,232,212$51,207$1,240,056
2993$1,240,056$52,231$1,247,217
3094$1,247,217$53,275$1,253,638
3195$1,253,638$54,341$1,259,262
3296$1,259,262$55,428$1,264,026
3397$1,264,026$56,536$1,267,865
3498$1,267,865$57,667$1,270,708
3599$1,270,708$58,820$1,272,482
36100$1,272,482$59,997$1,273,109
37101$1,273,109$61,197$1,272,508
38102$1,272,508$62,421$1,270,592
39103$1,270,592$63,669$1,267,269
40104$1,267,269$64,942$1,262,443

The odds $900,000 lasts at $30,000 a year

Returns arrive in a random order, and a few bad years early do the most damage. In 1,000 simulated markets, this is the share in which $30,000 a year, rising with inflation, still leaves money in the account after each number of years.

Chance $30,000 a year from $900,000 lasts, 1,000 simulated markets
ForTrinity-style (7%, 12%)Cautious (5%, 15%)
20 years99%92%
25 years94%82%
30 years89%70%
35 years82%60%
40 years76%51%

What other returns and inflation do

Years $30,000 a year from $900,000 lasts, by return and yearly raise
ReturnNo raise2% raise3% raise
3%60+ years36 years30 years
4%60+ years45 years36 years
5%60+ years60+ years45 years
6%60+ years60+ years60+ years
7%60+ years60+ years60+ years

$30,000 a year from other balances

Years $30,000 a year lasts, by balance, 5% return
BalanceLasts
$300,00012 years
$350,00014 years
$400,00017 years
$450,00020 years
$500,00023 years
$600,00030 years
$700,00038 years
$750,00044 years
$800,00050 years
$900,00060+ years
$1 million60+ years

Tax on a $30,000 withdrawal

From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, the whole withdrawal is ordinary income, and it can make more of your Social Security taxable. Federal tax it adds at 65 on 2026 rules, estimates:

Federal tax a $30,000 withdrawal adds at 65
HouseholdFederal taxShare of the withdrawal
Single, $24,000 of Social Security$1,8106%
Married, $42,000 of Social Security$00%

Roth withdrawals after 59½ and a five-year holding period are tax-free; money in a taxable account is taxed only on the gains. The retirement tax calculator adds state tax.

The calculator, set to these numbers

Your money lasts68 yearsRuns out around age 132
Most you can withdraw for 30 years$44,267 a year$3,689 a month, rising with inflation
Taken from the portfolio$30,000 a year3.3% of the portfolio in year one

Taking $30,000 a year ($2,500 a month) from $900,000, raised 2.0% a year for inflation, at a steady 5.0% return, the money runs out in year 68, around age 132. To make it last exactly 30 years, you could start at $44,267 a year.

Success rate69%1000 seeded paths
10th percentile ending$0
Median ending$530,739
90th percentile ending$3,658,098

Other withdrawals from $900,000

Years $900,000 lasts by withdrawal, 5% return, 2% raises
Withdrawal a yearA monthLasts
$30,000$2,50060+ years
$40,000$3,33336 years
$50,000$4,16725 years
$60,000$5,00020 years
$70,000$5,83316 years
$80,000$6,66714 years

All withdrawals and the odds on one page: how long $900,000 lasts.

How it is worked out

The steady-return figures are the how-long calculator’s own math: the withdrawal comes out at the start of each year, the rest earns the return, and the next withdrawal is 2% larger to keep up with inflation. Real markets do not return the same every year, so the odds come from 1,000 simulated sequences of yearly returns: Trinity-style (7% average, 12% volatility, 3% inflation) and cautious (5%, 15%, 2%). Taxes and fees are not taken out; take them from the withdrawal you enter. More on the method on the methodology page.

Frequently asked questions

How long will $900,000 last if I withdraw $30,000 a year?
More than 60 years at a steady 5% return when the withdrawal rises 2% a year with inflation, or more than 60 years if it stays at $30,000. The first withdrawal is 3.3% of the balance.
How long will $900,000 last at $2,500 a month?
$2,500 a month is $30,000 a year, so the same more than 60 years at a 5% return with 2% yearly raises. Taxes come out of the withdrawal: from a traditional 401(k) or IRA, part of each payment goes to income tax.
How much could $900,000 pay for 30 years instead?
About $44,267 in the first year, raised 2% a year, spends it to zero in exactly 30 years at a steady 5% return; $58,447 lasts 20 years and $37,465 lasts 40.
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