Can I retire calculator

A portfolio, a spend, a horizon, and a 1,000-path success rate. The number is how often the money lasted in the model — not a yes.

The calculator

Success rate24%
10th percentile ending$0
Median ending$0

How to read it

Compare two spends on the same engine. A jump from 78% to 91% after a 10% cut is information. A lone 91% is a slogan. See what is a good probability of success and the Monte Carlo retirement calculator.

Assumptions

1,000 paths, seed 20260828, 15% volatility, fixed real dollar withdrawals, no fees, no taxes.

Frequently asked questions

Can this calculator tell me if I can retire?
No. It reports how often a stated spend lasted a stated horizon in 1,000 seeded paths, under a constant-return-plus-noise model. That is a distribution, not permission.
What success rate is high enough?
Most planners treat 85% to 95% as a working band. The probability-of-success guide explains why 100% is usually a more expensive lifestyle, not a safer model.
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