The answer on these inputs
$80,000 a year at 4.0% needs $2,000,000 at age 65. Starting from $1,200,000 and adding $25,000 a year at 5.0% real, the portfolio at 65 is $2,269,121 — ahead of the number by $269,121. Across 1,000 seeded paths, that projected nest egg funds the spend for 30 years in 65% of worlds.
Change the inputs
Number at retirement$2,000,000
Projected nest egg$2,269,121
Years of saving to the number7.9 years
1,000-path success65%
Why this age is different
The 4% rule was a 30-year result. Retiring at 65 with a plan to 95 is a 30-year problem. That is why the default rate here is 4.0%, not 4% borrowed from a shorter window. Sibling pages for the other ages: