The answer on these inputs
$80,000 a year at 4.0% needs $2,000,000 at age 65. Starting from $1,200,000 and adding $25,000 a year at 5.0% real, the portfolio at 65 is $2,269,121 — ahead of the number by $269,121. Across 1,000 seeded paths, that projected nest egg funds the spend for 30 years in 65% of worlds.
What a nest egg funds from 65
Retiring at 65 means funding 30 years to 95. The 4.0% rule of thumb says $2,000,000 covers $80,000 a year. Across 1,000 paths that nest egg lasts to 95 in 55% of them on cautious returns and 76% on Trinity-style returns. For $80,000 a year to last in 9 of 10 paths, the nest egg at 65 needs to be about $2,440,000 on Trinity-style returns and $3,480,000 on cautious ones.
| Nest egg at 65 | Cautious returns | Trinity-style returns | Per month, Trinity-style |
|---|---|---|---|
| $500,000 | $11,500 | $16,000 | $1,333 |
| $1,000,000 | $23,000 | $32,500 | $2,708 |
| $1,500,000 | $34,500 | $49,000 | $4,083 |
| $2,000,000 | $46,000 | $65,500 | $5,458 |
| $3,000,000 | $69,000 | $98,000 | $8,167 |
Cautious is 5% return, 15% volatility and 2% inflation, a stress case below long-run market history. Trinity-style is the Trinity study calculator's 7%, 12% and 3%.
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Why this age is different
The 4% rule was a 30-year result. Retiring at 65 with a plan to 95 is a 30-year problem. That is why the default rate here is 4.0%, not 4% borrowed from a shorter window. On Trinity-style returns, $2,000,000 supports about $65,500 a year from 65 and $58,000 from 60.