The answer on these inputs
$90,000 a year at 4.0% needs $2,250,000 at age 55. Starting from $900,000 and adding $35,000 a year at 5.0% real, the portfolio at 55 is $1,906,231 — short by $343,769. Across 1,000 seeded paths, that projected nest egg funds the spend for 40 years in 23% of worlds.
What a nest egg funds from 55
Retiring at 55 means funding 40 years to 95. The 4.0% rule of thumb says $2,250,000 covers $90,000 a year. Across 1,000 paths that nest egg lasts to 95 in 34% of them on cautious returns and 56% on Trinity-style returns. For $90,000 a year to last in 9 of 10 paths, the nest egg at 55 needs to be about $3,430,000 on Trinity-style returns and $5,340,000 on cautious ones.
| Nest egg at 55 | Cautious returns | Trinity-style returns | Per month, Trinity-style |
|---|---|---|---|
| $500,000 | $8,000 | $13,000 | $1,083 |
| $1,000,000 | $16,500 | $26,000 | $2,167 |
| $1,500,000 | $25,000 | $39,000 | $3,250 |
| $2,000,000 | $33,500 | $52,500 | $4,375 |
| $3,000,000 | $50,500 | $78,500 | $6,542 |
Cautious is 5% return, 15% volatility and 2% inflation, a stress case below long-run market history. Trinity-style is the Trinity study calculator's 7%, 12% and 3%.
Change the inputs
Why this age is different
The 4% rule was a 30-year result. Retiring at 55 with a plan to 95 is a 40-year problem. That is why the default rate here is 4.0%, not 4% borrowed from a shorter window. On Trinity-style returns, $2,000,000 supports about $52,500 a year from 55 and $58,000 from 60.