The answer on these inputs
$75,000 a year at 3.5% needs $2,142,857 at age 40. Starting from $280,000 and adding $48,000 a year at 5.0% real, the portfolio at 40 is $872,045 — short by $1,270,812. Across 1,000 seeded paths, that projected nest egg funds the spend for 55 years in 0% of worlds.
Change the inputs
Number at retirement$2,142,857
Projected nest egg$872,045
Years of saving to the number18.8 years
1,000-path success0%
Why this age is different
The 4% rule was a 30-year result. Retiring at 40 with a plan to 95 is a 55-year problem. That is why the default rate here is 3.5%, not 4% borrowed from a shorter window. Sibling pages for the other ages: