The answer on these inputs
$75,000 a year at 3.5% needs $2,142,857 at age 40. Starting from $280,000 and adding $48,000 a year at 5.0% real, the portfolio at 40 is $872,045 — short by $1,270,812. Across 1,000 seeded paths, that projected nest egg funds the spend for 55 years in 0% of worlds.
What a nest egg funds from 40
Retiring at 40 means funding 55 years to 95. The 3.5% rule of thumb says $2,142,857 covers $75,000 a year. Across 1,000 paths that nest egg lasts to 95 in 33% of them on cautious returns and 57% on Trinity-style returns. For $75,000 a year to last in 9 of 10 paths, the nest egg at 40 needs to be about $3,490,000 on Trinity-style returns and $6,150,000 on cautious ones.
| Nest egg at 40 | Cautious returns | Trinity-style returns | Per month, Trinity-style |
|---|---|---|---|
| $500,000 | $6,000 | $10,500 | $875 |
| $1,000,000 | $12,000 | $21,500 | $1,792 |
| $1,500,000 | $18,000 | $32,000 | $2,667 |
| $2,000,000 | $24,000 | $43,000 | $3,583 |
| $3,000,000 | $36,500 | $64,500 | $5,375 |
Cautious is 5% return, 15% volatility and 2% inflation, a stress case below long-run market history. Trinity-style is the Trinity study calculator's 7%, 12% and 3%.
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Why this age is different
The 4% rule was a 30-year result. Retiring at 40 with a plan to 95 is a 55-year problem. That is why the default rate here is 3.5%, not 4% borrowed from a shorter window. On Trinity-style returns, $2,000,000 supports about $43,000 a year from 40 and $45,500 from 45.