How much money do you need to retire at 40?
$75,000 a year at 3.5% needs $2,142,857 at age 40. Starting from $280,000 and adding $48,000 a year at 5.0% real, the portfolio at 40 is $872,045 — short by $1,270,812. Across 1,000 seeded paths, that projected nest egg funds the spend for 55 years in 0% of worlds.
What a nest egg funds from 40
Retiring at 40 means funding 55 years to 95. The 3.5% rule of thumb says $2,142,857 covers $75,000 a year. Across 1,000 paths that nest egg lasts to 95 in 33% of them on cautious returns and 57% on Trinity-style returns. For $75,000 a year to last in 9 of 10 paths, the nest egg at 40 needs to be about $3,490,000 on Trinity-style returns and $6,150,000 on cautious ones. Once retired, the retirement withdrawal calculator shows how many years your savings last at the spending you choose.
| Nest egg at 40 | Cautious returns | Trinity-style returns | Per month, Trinity-style |
|---|---|---|---|
| $500,000 | $6,000 | $10,500 | $875 |
| $1,000,000 | $12,000 | $21,500 | $1,792 |
| $1,500,000 | $18,000 | $32,000 | $2,667 |
| $2,000,000 | $24,000 | $43,000 | $3,583 |
| $3,000,000 | $36,500 | $64,500 | $5,375 |
Cautious is 5% return, 15% volatility and 2% inflation, a stress case below long-run market history. Trinity-style is the Trinity study calculator's 7%, 12% and 3%.
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Why this age is different
The 4% rule was a 30-year result. Retiring at 40 with a plan to 95 is a 55-year problem. That is why the default rate here is 3.5%, not 4% borrowed from a shorter window. On Trinity-style returns, $2,000,000 supports about $43,000 a year from 40 and $45,500 from 45.
Planning an early retirement? The FI calculator works out your FIRE number and the age you reach it, and the Coast FIRE calculator shows when you could stop saving and let growth finish the job.
Retiring at 40 also means living on your savings before 59½, when most 401(k) and IRA withdrawals still carry a 10% penalty. The 72(t) calculator sizes penalty-free substantially equal periodic payments from an IRA, and the Roth conversion ladder calculator plans conversions you can spend five years later.