The answer on these inputs
$80,000 a year at 3.5% needs $2,285,714 at age 45. Starting from $420,000 and adding $42,000 a year at 5.0% real, the portfolio at 45 is $1,114,674 — short by $1,171,041. Across 1,000 seeded paths, that projected nest egg funds the spend for 50 years in 3% of worlds.
Change the inputs
Number at retirement$2,285,714
Projected nest egg$1,114,674
Years of saving to the number18.6 years
1,000-path success3%
Why this age is different
The 4% rule was a 30-year result. Retiring at 45 with a plan to 95 is a 50-year problem. That is why the default rate here is 3.5%, not 4% borrowed from a shorter window. Sibling pages for the other ages: