The answer on these inputs
$85,000 a year at 3.7% needs $2,297,297 at age 50. Starting from $650,000 and adding $40,000 a year at 5.0% real, the portfolio at 50 is $1,561,897 — short by $735,400. Across 1,000 seeded paths, that projected nest egg funds the spend for 45 years in 10% of worlds.
Change the inputs
Number at retirement$2,297,297
Projected nest egg$1,561,897
Years of saving to the number15.6 years
1,000-path success10%
Why this age is different
The 4% rule was a 30-year result. Retiring at 50 with a plan to 95 is a 45-year problem. That is why the default rate here is 3.7%, not 4% borrowed from a shorter window. Sibling pages for the other ages: