The answer on these inputs
$90,000 a year at 4.0% needs $2,250,000 at age 60. Starting from $1,100,000 and adding $30,000 a year at 5.0% real, the portfolio at 60 is $2,169,121 — short by $80,879. Across 1,000 seeded paths, that projected nest egg funds the spend for 35 years in 38% of worlds.
What a nest egg funds from 60
Retiring at 60 means funding 35 years to 95. The 4.0% rule of thumb says $2,250,000 covers $90,000 a year. Across 1,000 paths that nest egg lasts to 95 in 42% of them on cautious returns and 65% on Trinity-style returns. For $90,000 a year to last in 9 of 10 paths, the nest egg at 60 needs to be about $3,110,000 on Trinity-style returns and $4,540,000 on cautious ones.
| Nest egg at 60 | Cautious returns | Trinity-style returns | Per month, Trinity-style |
|---|---|---|---|
| $500,000 | $9,500 | $14,500 | $1,208 |
| $1,000,000 | $19,500 | $29,000 | $2,417 |
| $1,500,000 | $29,500 | $43,500 | $3,625 |
| $2,000,000 | $39,500 | $58,000 | $4,833 |
| $3,000,000 | $59,500 | $87,000 | $7,250 |
Cautious is 5% return, 15% volatility and 2% inflation, a stress case below long-run market history. Trinity-style is the Trinity study calculator's 7%, 12% and 3%.
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Why this age is different
The 4% rule was a 30-year result. Retiring at 60 with a plan to 95 is a 35-year problem. That is why the default rate here is 4.0%, not 4% borrowed from a shorter window. On Trinity-style returns, $2,000,000 supports about $58,000 a year from 60 and $65,500 from 65.