4 articles on retirement withdrawals
Vanguard dynamic spending vs the 4% rule: what the spending actually looks like
Vanguard dynamic spending vs the 4% rule on 5,000 paired retirements: +$17,834 lifetime spending in the median world, -$198,351 in the worst tenth. Q1-Q4 run.
Why the 4% rule is riskier at 40 than at 65
4% rule riskier at 40 than 65: rigid 4% success 78.7% over 50 years vs 93.5% over 25 years. 1,000 paths, seed 20260622.
Safe Withdrawal Rates by Retirement Age: 30 to 50 Year Horizons
Safe withdrawal rates by retirement age: rigid 4% and Guyton-Klinger on 30- to 50-year horizons, 200 seeded paths, seed 20260814. CSV included.
Is the 4% Rule Still Safe? We Ran 5,000 Simulated Retirements
Is the 4% rule still safe? Flexible 4% lasted in 100% of 5,000 simulations; rigid 4% failed 1.1%. Full safe withdrawal rate trade-off table.
Other topics
- Sequence of returns risk — Why the order of market returns can matter more than the average — especially near retirement.
- Monte Carlo & projections — Why single-number projections mislead, and how probability-based planning works.
- Investing costs — Fee drag, expense ratios, and the lifetime dollar cost of 1%.
- Investing behavior — Time in the market vs timing the market, and the cost of panic selling.
- Strategy comparison — Apples-to-apples benchmarks of allocation and spending rules on identical markets.