Monte Carlo & projections

Why single-number projections mislead, and how probability-based planning works.

1 article on monte carlo & projections

Other topics

  • Retirement withdrawals — Safe withdrawal rates, the 4% rule, and flexible vs rigid spending policies.
  • Sequence of returns risk — Why the order of market returns can matter more than the average — especially near retirement.
  • Investing costs — Fee drag, expense ratios, and the lifetime dollar cost of 1%.
  • Investing behavior — Time in the market vs timing the market, and the cost of panic selling.
  • Strategy comparison — Apples-to-apples benchmarks of allocation and spending rules on identical markets.