4% rule calculator

William Bengen’s 1994 rule of thumb as a first-year income: 4% of the starting portfolio, then that dollar amount plus inflation. The rate is locked at 4% on this page.

The calculator

First-year income at 4%$40,000
After fees$40,000
Monthly$3,333
Multiple25.0×

4% of $1,000,000 is $40,000 in year one.

Success rate53%1000 seeded paths
10th percentile ending$0
Median ending$83,330
90th percentile ending$3,174,969

What the 4% rule is

Year-one spending is 4% of the starting balance. Later years raise that dollar amount with inflation and never re-read the portfolio. After a 30% fall, the same withdrawal is 5.7% of what is left. The safe withdrawal rate calculator is the same identity with a rate you can change. The Trinity study calculator asks whether that cheque lasted 30 years. The 4% study is the 5,000-path version. Set year one from valuations with the CAPE-based withdrawal calculator.

Assumptions

Pre-tax, 30-year band, 2% inflation in the optional paths. Bengen’s original windows were 30 years. A retirement at 40 is not a 30-year problem — see withdrawal rates by age.

Frequently asked questions

What is a 4% rule calculator?
A tool that applies William Bengen’s 1994 rule of thumb: withdraw 4% of the portfolio in year one, then raise that dollar amount with inflation. This page locks the rate at 4%.
Is this the same as the safe withdrawal rate calculator?
Same identity, fixed at 4%. Use the safe withdrawal rate calculator to try 3.5% or 3% — those are the rates a longer retirement often needs.
What the 4% rule is notTry the live demoStart a 5-day free trial