Sequence of returns crash-year calculator

The same crash in year one versus the last year, with 1931, 1974, 2002 and 2008 spliced from this site’s S&P 500 price-return tape. Price returns, not total returns.

The calculator

Crash first (2008)$462,803Lasted
Crash last$2,052,010Lasted
Gap$1,589,207

The tape

Calendar-year S&P 500 price returns from the same monthly series the product backtest uses, 1928–2025, dividends excluded. 2008 on that tape is -38.5%. The generic demonstration — crash first versus crash last without a named year — is the sequence of returns calculator.

Assumptions

One crash year spliced into an otherwise constant return. Withdrawals then the year’s return. No fees, no taxes, no other income.

Frequently asked questions

What does a 2008 sequence of returns look like?
The S&P 500 price return in 2008 on this site’s 1928–2025 tape is about −38.5%. This page splices that year into a constant-return path, once at the start and once at the end.
Are these total returns?
No. They are calendar-year S&P 500 price returns from the same monthly series the product backtest uses, dividends excluded. That is stated on the page.
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